Beginning to Hope

 Back in January, new cases of Covid-19 in the United States were rising, and reached over 300,000 per day. That was frightening. In the last few weeks, the numbers have turned downward. New cases reported for yesterday were fewer than 70,000, though new deaths were still 1,800. We will reach 500,000 total deaths by Tuesday if not Monday. But deaths are also slowly beginning to decline.

Ohio is following the same trends. No one is quite sure what is causing this drop. I suspect that one factor is that many people, like me and my family, are following the public health recommendations carefully, and so have lower risk of infection. And many of those who haven't followed those practices have already been infected. I see estimates that only about 1 in 5 cases is reported, maybe because people with no or mild symptoms don't get tested. People working in health care get tested regularly, even without symptoms, but no one else does, it seems.

Hospitalizations have decreased. Positive test rates have decreased. These suggest that the drop in cases is real, and not a result of decreased testing. Because there is a drop in testing, too. I think outside high risk populations, people are only getting tested if they go to seek care. Fewer people are getting tested because fewer people are getting sick. So maybe those vulnerable to infection due to poor compliance have all been sick. After all, with 28 million confirmed cases, multiplied by 5, we have 140 million people already through Covid-19. Add in those who have been vaccinated, which is only 13%, but that is 42 million people, we could have as many as 180 million people with some immunity. And if the most vulnerable are the majority of those, then the spread will slow because the noncompliant have already become immune. Those of us carefully complying with the rules for safety are getting more safe.

Will this trend continue? Hard to know. New variants could make people vulnerable again. though so far, the vaccines seem to offer at least some protection with known variants. We may see improvements in vaccine delivery, if we get through these winter storms, and that will help. 100 million people vaccinated by 30 April, 100 days after the inauguration, would mean a pretty big difference in the susceptible population. With acceleration of production and delivery, we could be almost normal by July. Let's hope that is a real hope. But for now, keep wearing masks and social distancing.

News of Facebook

 Facebook has banned news posts in Australia. That is because the government in Australia is working on imposing a law that makes Facebook and other social media, or Internet, companies pay royalties on news stories that users post. Facebook says it does not ask for the news, and has no control over it, and therefor is not responsible for payment. It Australia insists, Facebook demurs by banning news in Australia and news from Australia everywhere else. It seems like an epic battle.

Except that Australia is a small player in the economics of Facebook. I don't remember how many people there are in Australia, but it doesn't seem to matter. I think I'm on Facebook's side in this. If news organizations want money for public posts, they should control access, which I know would limit traffic and might be counterproductive, or should negotiate with Facebook directly. Government involvement is also counterproductive, as it drives Facebook to ban the news they would be told to pay for. Hardly and unexpected response. People should not be depending on Facebook for news to begin with.

In related news about the Internet and public posting, Malaysia has upheld fines against a news organization for what it is saying were offensive comments by readers of news. The comments were about the judiciary of the country, and the decision was made by members of the judiciary of the country, which is an obvious conflict of interest and screams corruption. Besides, since when does an independent judiciary need, or deserve, protection from unpleasant comments from the public? That is hardly consistent with the principle of free speech.

I don't know much about Malaysia, except that it is not a bastion of freedom of expression. I believe it has a repressive government and has legalized censorship with regard to comments about the government, because the government is hardly worthy of positive attention, so the only way it can avoid a deluge of bad commentary is to ban it. I wonder if Facebook has a presence in Malaysia.

I think I understand both why news organizations and social media allow users to post comments. People like that freedom, and probably are attracted to such sites, where they can, and often do, express themselves, pretty much any way they want. I also understand that there should be limits on such things, which there are. The news organization in Malaysia took down the "offensive comments", but apparently not fast enough. But I don't agree with the judges stepping in to decide what is acceptable to say about judges. Short of inciting actual violence, I'd say let freedom ring. More or less.

I want Facebook to check facts, though. I don't want people to be free to spread disinformation. That is a tricky subject. I understand that. Finding the appropriate limits, and the proper procedures for enforcement of standards, is a challenge. I know quite a few people who disparage fact checkers at every turn. I tell them that people who attack fact checkers just don't want facts known. They usually respond with insults. I don't think what they say in insults is really subject to fact checking, and I  don't want Facebook calling me up to see if I really am a pussy or a Communist. I'm not a public figure, and I don't care if my Facebook contacts call me a pussy or a communist. I'm not a communist, or a socialist, but they insist I am because I don't buy their nonsense, which makes me a liberal elite, and therefor a communist. Facebook wisely stays out of such debates. But statements that Joe Biden stole the election should not go unchallenged, because that is public information of actual meaning, and clearly untrue because the election was carefully observed and reviewed, with no evidence of substantial irregularities. That is, all evidence supports the conclusion it was a free and fair election, and those who say otherwise are attacking the foundations of our democratic society. 

I don't envy the administrators of Facebook. I hope they do good things. I might keep looking at Facebook, for now. If I want news about Australia, I'll search news websites. I regularly visit the BBC News already. I won't get involved in legal wrangling in Malaysia. Maybe I'll pray for their people, though, because they have bigger problems than Facebook or Australia.

A Bucket of Spit

 My wife has found some entertainment from the results of her 23andMe test results. She recently got an update, which included some shifting around in her genetic background. We were surprised when she got her first results, because has a great grandmother who was said to be Italian, but Liz only came out at 1% Italian, based on markers. With the update, that has risen to 4%. Her Scandinavian markers also increased some. I still wonder how these markers are defined, but I'm not surprised that they get adjusted over time. More data means better analysis, I expect.

So Liz got me a kit. Today, I opened it up, spit in the tube, and sealed it up for mailing. Some time in the future, I will get some results, assuming the package arrives at the destination, and nothing goes wrong in processing, and all those other steps that must be completed to get a report on my genetic markers.

I didn't ask for health information. Liz hadn't asked for it; she ordered the basic kit, thinking I was most interested in ancestry, like she was. And it's true; I am most interested in ancestry. I don't really care about genetic markers and there correlation with any diseases, though I do support continued research.

In order to get a repost, one must register one's kit. So I registered. And then I answered questions. Health questions. There were a lot of them. The longest set was about hypertension. I was diagnosed with essential hypertension in '10, when I was 47. I was started on lisinopril, 10 mg qd. That is what I take now, and it still seems to be controlling my hypertension. The survey asked about some 50 different medications, it seemed. I knew the names of some. Beta blockers, ACE inhibitors, diuretics. Lisinopril is an ACE inhibitor. It would have been easier, and faster, for me to just say I only take lisinopril for blood pressure, but that isn't how the survey was set up. And I answered all the questions, because I do.

I guess this means I have added a batch of data to some algorithm somewhere. I don't know what they will do with my answers before my sample arrives. I hope the algorithms appreciate my efforts. And I may discuss my results when they come. 

Texas Blows

 The extremes of weather predicted by models of global warming seem to be playing out. There has been snow across the American South this week, and another storm may be passing through in the next few days. Texas has power outages in many places, and Texans are blaming wind power.

That's right. Wind power. Which accounts for ten percent of electricity in Texas in winter time is being blamed for the power outages across the state. The problem is that frozen natural gas and failure in coal and nuclear plants from the cold are bigger contributors to the problem. And El Paso hasn't had the same problem, because it doesn't limit itself to power from Texas, being connected to other states. So El Paso was able to restore its power within minutes, unlike the rest of Texas, which, to avoid federal regulations, is not connected to other states, and thus suffered serious problems, including a number of avoidable deaths, when its poorly managed infrastructure for energy failed in a storm. It seems that without proper regulation, states can fail to maintain infrastructure in preparation for emergencies, even in relatively rich states like Texas. I would say it was shocking, but without power, how can it be?

It was 1 degree F at our house this morning. We had several inches of snow Monday and Tuesday, with wind and so forth. We did not lose power. Ohio is better prepared for such storms. Maybe because they happen here at greater frequency. But how many deaths justify the failures in Texas? I mean, Texas opted to avoid federal regulation, and saved money by neglecting to prepare for "worst case scenarios" in weatherizing its power grid. How much saving would it take to justify the deaths that have resulted from this failure? Who should be held responsible? I mean, Ted Cruz has defended Texas and attacked other states for failures, including California. Now that Texas has lost lives due to obvious negligence, should he be listed among those to be held accountable? I think so. His whole attitude about preparation for the changes due to global warming make him unfit for decision-making on any serious level.

The globe is warming. It is warming because of greenhouse gas emission from human activity. This trend will continue for decades, even if we change our behavior now, and stop these emissions, and will continue to get worse if we don't. These are things science has told us, and our "leaders" aren't listening. Well, some are. President Joe Biden seems to be taking global warming seriously. That is a good development.

Leaders in Texas have not been taking global warming seriously. I wonder if they will start soon. I wonder how many disasters it will take to get their attention. I hope I am underestimating them, but I always remember that quote from underestimating the taste of the American public. Some change that to intelligence, and I sadly concede the point.

Snow Day

 It snowed in Portland, Oregon. It snowed in Seattle. It snowed in Texas, and all across the South.

It was supposed to snow quite a bit in Columbus, Ohio. We are under a Level 2 Snow Emergency, which means stay home if you possibly can, so my campus director closed the campus, cancelling my lab for today.

I look out my windows, and I see snow. But on Molly, out '97 Toyota Camry in the driveway, I see about two inches of snow. Just from a glance, it doesn't seem like such an emergency. I can drive safely in two inches of snow.

What I can't see is how much ice there is, or what conditions are on streets beyond my own. It was still snowing this morning, as expected. I had said yesterday, during a Zoom meeting, that I figured by the time I had to leave home, the snow plows would have had several hours to work on clearing the roads, so driving conditions shouldn't be too bad. That depended on actual snow fall, of course. But an emergency was declared late yesterday afternoon, and the decision to close the campus was made.

I may not leave my house all day. I may go out to retrieve our bird feeders to refill them, as one looks empty, and the other is maybe a quarter full. They have been busy this morning, so both could be empty soon. But I doubt I will venture beyond our yard. There doesn't seem to be any need.

There is sunshine here now, but at least by tomorrow, another storm is expected. If the worst case scenario plays out, we could have more than a foot of snow by Friday, between what we have now and what is still coming. It seems the forecasters know their business well enough. I don't know how their algorithms interact with the rest of the electronic beings. It seems like a complex interaction is involved, as the models that predict weather must have data from observations of conditions across most of the world, and the ability to create and analyze a wide range of scenarios. That would require connections to places all across the country, and beyond our borders. I know that Ohio is the center of it all, or something like that, but these snow storms formed at some distance, and continue to move. I think our wet winter is influenced by the La Nina conditions in the Pacific, but I haven't checked to see if my memory about that relationship is accurate.

So the algorithms predicting the weather are doing well. Meanwhile, I am getting ads for women's clothes and software I already bought, neither of which I will buy any time soon. I don't know if there are selection forces operating among the algorithms. Evolution has so far been rather hard to predict, even in well-studied environments, and if the algorithms humans have created are truly capable of finding answers in ways the programmers don't understand, it seems unlikely we could predict evolution among them. Another thing to watch, beyond the weather and the birds. Life is full of wonder.

After my lecture, I think I'll take a nap. After all, I won't be holding lab.

Let the Indictments Begin

 The United States Senate voted 43 to 57 to convict Trump, which means he was acquitted because of the requirement of a two thirds vote to convict in impeachment trials. At least some of the Republicans who voted in Trump's favor have said they did so because they don't believe a president should be tried for impeachment after he has left office. There have been cases of impeachment trials taking place after a resignation, so history has allowed such trials. The argument that the Senate doesn't have jurisdiction seems rather a stretch, since Trump was impeached while president, and the Constitution clearly states that the Senate has jurisdiction for all impeachment trials.

I did read one argument that an impeachment trial of a president in moot once the president is out of office because the Constitution says the penalty for impeachment "shall be" removal from office. I have also read that most scholars of the constitution believe the senators are wrong to say that an impeachment trial after a president is out of office is unconstitutional. I tend to agree with those ideas, but I don't think it's something that is likely to come up again. Trump is an anomaly in American politics, and his kind will fade. A majority of Americans will be skeptical of candidates like him for generations.

I am encouraged by the legal proceedings that have been started, investigating Trump and his attempts to subvert the election in Georgia and perhaps other places. I would like to see him investigated for his felony violations of campaign finance laws in 2016, involving his affairs with strippers, and in 2020 involving the president of the Ukraine. I look forward to seeing reports on the investigations of fraud in New York. I hope Congress will take to heart the admonitions of Senator Sasse, and start taking responsibility for governance, as the Constitution requires. Yes, I want Congress to do its job, even if that makes it harder for President Biden to make progress on his agenda. After all, the rules on immigration are supposed to be set by statute, not executive order. Many of Biden's orders should be enshrined in statute.

I also look forward to seeing many convictions for the insurrectionists who attacked the Capital. I hope they claim in court that Trump sent them, and are still convicted. Let the indictments begin.

Not Knowing

 I am finding this week that I don't want to read. I'm not sure what the issue is, really. I love books, and I am still reading David Copperfield with Liz at bedtime, but I haven't picked up my own book, except just for a few minutes at a time. Instead, I spend more time than usual on Facebook, or playing Spelling Bee on the NYT website.

Liz has been playing Spelling Bee for a while. She enjoys it. I found it now, and I also enjoy it. I have always liked word games. We do the crossword puzzle every Sunday. Now we play Spelling Bee. As we are under one subscription, we play the same game. I should probably stop. I should let Liz enjoy her game. After all, she pays for the subscription. Most days, I wait until late in the day to see what words she has come up with, and then I see if I can find more. Sometimes I can, but not always. Liz has a pretty good vocabulary, and she has playing longer, who she remembers words that appear in the game.

Maybe I don't want to read because the books I'm reading are hard to read. I just finished The Underground Railroad by Colson Whitehead. It has brutal, violent scenes. Torture, murder, all kinds of atrocities are depicted. I expect many or most of these things actually happened in cases during slavery, though a couple of the places Cora goes have societies different from actual history, but still depicted in ways that show human nature and certain tendencies in actions. Group dynamics were illustrated in horrifying detail. I understand a little about group dynamics, and it can be frightening. Committees tend toward the extremes because those with extreme views tend to be more aggressive about advocating for their ideas. I just don't want to go along.

I am also finding that I don't remember anything about David Copperfield. Not a character, not a scene. I am almost beginning to doubt I read it. Maybe it's just that my memory isn't as good as I always thought it was. I have noticed that I depend on checking facts to get things right, because I find all kinds of errors in my memories. I guess I'll let the algorithms handle that.

Streaming

 My grandsons found a show they enjoy. It's called, "How It's Made", and is a production of a Canadian company. I haven't seen any episodes, but it seems there are at least thirty seasons. I don't know how many episodes a seasons has. My daughter says they have two seasons. I'm not sure of the format, but maybe a DVD. They have seen all the episodes so many times, they have become a little tiresome, which takes some doing for boys of that age.

My wife and I talked about getting them more seasons of the show. We looked online. There is a scattering of DVD's available with a few episodes each. Nothing in order, no big collections. It turns out it is harder than expected to get access to this show.

We did find that the show is available on Discovery+, a streaming service I have never seen. We got them a subscription for the younger one's birthday, which is next weekend. I hope they enjoy the other episodes. There should be quite a few, so this might provide entertainment for a long time. Maybe until they outgrow the whole series, if that's possible.

I read about shows I think I would like to see, and then I find that I can't find them. I love Midsomer Murders, a British mystery series about an inspector in a made-up county in England. I have read that the actor playing the inspector in the first seasons was in another series some time before, which I think was also a British cop show. It is not available anywhere in any format, according to what I read. I don't know why.

I think we are pretty spoiled in this modern age. We have access to so much, we start to think we have access to everything, or at least that we should. I find myself getting upset when I can't find what I know exists somewhere. I'm sure there are all kinds of issues over such things as ownership. Maybe there are no useable sources for some shows. I don't know what format old series would be stored in, and how they might be translated to a digital format compatible with current technology. There is also the issue of possible audience. Some obscure series that wasn't particularly popular to begin with, and has not increased an audience over time, would take up some kind of resource if it were made available. I have no idea what the capacity of Netflix or Amazon Prime is, or even how it would be measured. I also understand that neither company caters much to someone with my particular tastes. But I still react as if something is wrong when I can't get what I want right away. Definitely spoiled.

I have a cousin who complained about limits on use of the term, Super Bowl. He can't use it in advertising for his pizza franchise. Well, no, the NFL is under no obligation to allow public use of something they have trademarked. Just because the Super Bowl is well known doesn't make the name public domain. Trademark protection exists for a reason, even if that reason, which includes giving companies some control over their image. I wonder if some series are not available in streaming services because the producers or current owners think they haven't aged well, and might be considered poor quality or offensive.

I thought about this in part because I saw an article online to day that said North Carolina has decided not to allow the Confederate flag on license plates. The official statement is that the flag might be offensive to some. I saw a comment about that, railing against PC weakness. I think the statement was an overly polite way of saying the government officials have finally acknowledged that the Confederate flag has primarily been used as a symbol of white supremacy and racism, and has no cultural value beyond perpetuating hatred.

So, should I watch It's a Wonderful Life, despite the portrayal of the black character? Or should that be made unavailable, as it hasn't really aged well? I can find something else to do.