I haven't seen a lot of polls about the election in Ohio. It seems that Democrat Sherrod Brown is ahead in polls in his reelection bid for the Senate, and that the candidates for governor are tied, or very close to it. I don't know about other statewide offices.
Polls for congressional elections are sparse, as there isn't a lot of drama due to the gerrymandered districts in Ohio. Some are rated as likely for one party or the other, mostly for Republicans, who drew the districts after the 2010 elections, but four Democrats are in likely or solid districts.
I still expect that Democratic candidates for congressional seats will get more votes than Republican candidates, but that Republicans will win most of the seats, but I can't point to much data to back up my opinion.
Recent events have been disturbing, but may not affect the election. An angry Trump supporter with a criminal record has been arrested for mailing fourteen bombs to Democrats, all outspoken critics of Trump. And an angry white man killed eleven people and injured others at a synagogue in Pittsburgh. He is clearly an anti-Semite, but also appears to have expressed hatred for Trump, which confuses the issue in some ways.
National polls and predictions of election outcomes have not shifted much over the past few weeks. Most prognosticators think Democrats will make significant gains in the House, and probably take a majority, while Republicans will probably hold a slim majority in the Senate. Democrats will gain a few governorships. I don't know much about what is expected at the state level, even in Ohio. It is possible Democrats will make gains in the state legislature, but I will be very surprised in Democrats take a majority in either house, and especially in the State Senate. I should know the last time Democrats had a majority in the State Senate, but I don't. I don't think they ever have during my time in residency.
These things do matter, but I already voted, and I have no other control. Maybe that is why I haven't made more effort to find out what is expected. Maybe it is because the results are too easily predicted, and little is likely to change in Ohio. Some will change if Richard Cordray is elected governor. He seems quite capable, and could make some good changes. And the House of Representatives controlled by Democrats could cause the federal government to function more competently, with actual application of principles, evaluation of data, use of science, and so forth. These would be important developments. But mostly boring, at least for me right now.
Maybe I need another focus for my mind, at least until the election is held.
Sunday, October 28, 2018
Monday, October 1, 2018
Without an Algorithm
Clearly, I'm not very dedicated to maintaining a journal or blog, but I do have thoughts.
I have been looking at predictions for the upcoming midterm elections. There seems to be a general expectation that Democrats will do well, overall, and stand a chance of electing a majority in the House of Representatives. The odds are longer for a change in leadership in the Senate. The predictions, updated frequently, shift one way or another, but haven't changed very much in the last few weeks.
Here is my prediction, which is not based on polling or even reading local news, but a kind of gut feeling. Democratic candidates for congressional seats in Ohio will get more total votes than Republican candidates, but Republicans will still dominate the Ohio Congressional caucus. We are victims of gerrymandering.
If the Democrats have a very good day, they might win as many as six House seats, out of sixteen. If they have a very bad day, they will win four seats.
In a recent election, the primary in May, Ohio voters passed a referendum changing the process for creating congressional districts. The new process requires some votes from the minority party in a decision to approve the districts designed by a commission. If all minority members vote against the proposed plan, the districts are still approved, but must be revisited in a couple of years, or maybe four or six. It is not quite as bad as it was before. Time will tell whether it makes a substantive difference.
For now, the general prediction on outcome of the election is easy: Republicans will get the majority of congressional seats from Ohio. The vote totals are not quite so clear. In the last three elections, Republicans have had more votes than Democrats. I expect that will not hold this time, but I have a poor record of handicapping election results.
I will vote. I will not show ID when I vote. I expect my vote will be counted, anyway, as it should be, as I am a citizen and registered voter. I don't know if my preferred candidates will win in state elections, but I am pretty sure my Representative will still be Steve Stivers, as our district is very heavily Republican, by design.
The local election, for state representative, could be more interesting. Maybe I'll look into it.
I have been looking at predictions for the upcoming midterm elections. There seems to be a general expectation that Democrats will do well, overall, and stand a chance of electing a majority in the House of Representatives. The odds are longer for a change in leadership in the Senate. The predictions, updated frequently, shift one way or another, but haven't changed very much in the last few weeks.
Here is my prediction, which is not based on polling or even reading local news, but a kind of gut feeling. Democratic candidates for congressional seats in Ohio will get more total votes than Republican candidates, but Republicans will still dominate the Ohio Congressional caucus. We are victims of gerrymandering.
If the Democrats have a very good day, they might win as many as six House seats, out of sixteen. If they have a very bad day, they will win four seats.
In a recent election, the primary in May, Ohio voters passed a referendum changing the process for creating congressional districts. The new process requires some votes from the minority party in a decision to approve the districts designed by a commission. If all minority members vote against the proposed plan, the districts are still approved, but must be revisited in a couple of years, or maybe four or six. It is not quite as bad as it was before. Time will tell whether it makes a substantive difference.
For now, the general prediction on outcome of the election is easy: Republicans will get the majority of congressional seats from Ohio. The vote totals are not quite so clear. In the last three elections, Republicans have had more votes than Democrats. I expect that will not hold this time, but I have a poor record of handicapping election results.
I will vote. I will not show ID when I vote. I expect my vote will be counted, anyway, as it should be, as I am a citizen and registered voter. I don't know if my preferred candidates will win in state elections, but I am pretty sure my Representative will still be Steve Stivers, as our district is very heavily Republican, by design.
The local election, for state representative, could be more interesting. Maybe I'll look into it.
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