UnPredicted

 Raphael Warnock won the senate race in Georgia. I cashed out of PredictIt today.

I started playing around in PredictIt back in 2020 or so. I don't remember the actual day I opened my account there, but I had predicted that Trump would lose re-election in August 2019, and people called me an idiot and other names suggesting I was not very bright. And someone said I should put my money where my mouth was, or something on that order. So I did. I put $300 in PredictIt and bought contracts for Trump to lose. Or maybe Biden to win, as I didn't open the account in 2019, but summer of 2020, and Biden was the Democratic candidate who would win the election.

Biden won. I took my money and bought quick contracts for Biden to win Arizona and then Georgia. After that, I took $500 out of the site, but left some in for fun. Sadly, I bought contracts on the confirmation of some of Biden's nominees, but didn't pay enough attention to dates on the contracts, so I lost some of my money. I never spent a lot of time on the site, and it cost me.

By the middle of 2021 I only had $17 dollars left in PredictIt, which I put on Democrats to lose the House. Those odds didn't change for a year, and in August this year, I changed to contracts on Democrats to hold a majority in the Senate. When they did and my contracts rose to over 95 cents, I sold and bought contracts on Kari Lake to lose in Arizona. Then I bought contracts on Republicans to have 49 senate seats in the new Congress in January. After Warnock won, those contracts rose to 95 cents, and I sold.

Today I cashed out of PredictIt. Twice, I had made long-term predictions about elections, which turned out correct, then made quick bets on specific races. Each time, I tripled my money. Most of the contracts in PredictIt are on less interesting things. I don't think I can predict what Biden's approval rating will be in six days, and I don't care. I only bet on things I was pretty sure I would win (except when  I didn't pay quite enough attention to the details of the contract), and there were only a few of those. But it was fun and I made a few buck.

Now, the feds are closing them down. The Commodities Futures Trading Commission has order the site closed in February. I don't understand why. But I took what money I had there out. If something changes, I may get back to playing in political futures markets because I have found I can make some money on obvious bets because not everyone sees the world like I do. I don't understand why anyone would think the 2020 presidential election was tainted because it was obvious more than a year ahead how it would come out. I don't often like how the American electorate behaves, but in many cases it is predictable enough. Somewhat irrational, but predictable. What the futures sites did that someone objects to is not clear to me, and if they get new life, I may rejoin.

So long, PredictIt. I cannot predict our future with confidence, but it doesn't look good. That's my last bet.

Runoff

 Today is the runoff election in Georgia for the senate seat. I placed a bet on Senator Warnock. Technically, I placed a bet that Republicans would end up with 49 senators this term, because that gave me the lowest cost to buy in. This morning, my bet has increased from purchase price on the contract by 13 cents.

I took the money I got from betting on Democrats to hold the Senate and put it in this last contract. I started with just over 17 dollars, and now have 51 (if I cash out before the election results). I could end up with $54. Or I could lose it all.

The media insist that the election is too close to call. Some sites, including 538, make the case for each candidate to win. Elections in America are not easily predictable because most voters are poorly informed and vote based on emotions and biases, and not on facts or reason. That's why Ohio now will be represented by an unqualified blowhard in the Senate when they could have had a competent and proven representative. But Ohio also has a number of embarrassing Congressional representatives, which have been elected repeatedly despite their non-record of knowledge or usefulness. Or outright foolishness and lies. That is why betting on elections is not particularly wise.

Still, I like the game. I have earned a bit of money in the political markets over the last couple of years. I don't put much money or effort into it, but I bet when I am pretty sure I will win. Like this time.

Now, with Brian Kemp adding the power of his ground game to Herschel Walker's campaign, things might change. It is hard to understand why anyone would support Walker for elected office, and his scandals may hound him out of public life and possibly into prison if properly pursued, but it seems nearly half of Georgia's voters will vote for him anyway. It seems to me that he has committed tax fraud in Texas unless he is actually a resident of Texas, which would mean he is ineligible to run in Georgia under Georgia election law and has also committed voter fraud there. But still, he is a candidate so many are supporting. That makes me sad. American has so much to offer, but our potential will never be reached so long as so many pay so little attention, and actually vote for candidates like this.

So, tomorrow, I will either be harvesting my winnings, having tripled my money in this election cycle, or I'll be out of the political market entirely. Oh, well, I hear the site is shutting down in February, anyway. It was fun.