UnPredicted

 Raphael Warnock won the senate race in Georgia. I cashed out of PredictIt today.

I started playing around in PredictIt back in 2020 or so. I don't remember the actual day I opened my account there, but I had predicted that Trump would lose re-election in August 2019, and people called me an idiot and other names suggesting I was not very bright. And someone said I should put my money where my mouth was, or something on that order. So I did. I put $300 in PredictIt and bought contracts for Trump to lose. Or maybe Biden to win, as I didn't open the account in 2019, but summer of 2020, and Biden was the Democratic candidate who would win the election.

Biden won. I took my money and bought quick contracts for Biden to win Arizona and then Georgia. After that, I took $500 out of the site, but left some in for fun. Sadly, I bought contracts on the confirmation of some of Biden's nominees, but didn't pay enough attention to dates on the contracts, so I lost some of my money. I never spent a lot of time on the site, and it cost me.

By the middle of 2021 I only had $17 dollars left in PredictIt, which I put on Democrats to lose the House. Those odds didn't change for a year, and in August this year, I changed to contracts on Democrats to hold a majority in the Senate. When they did and my contracts rose to over 95 cents, I sold and bought contracts on Kari Lake to lose in Arizona. Then I bought contracts on Republicans to have 49 senate seats in the new Congress in January. After Warnock won, those contracts rose to 95 cents, and I sold.

Today I cashed out of PredictIt. Twice, I had made long-term predictions about elections, which turned out correct, then made quick bets on specific races. Each time, I tripled my money. Most of the contracts in PredictIt are on less interesting things. I don't think I can predict what Biden's approval rating will be in six days, and I don't care. I only bet on things I was pretty sure I would win (except when  I didn't pay quite enough attention to the details of the contract), and there were only a few of those. But it was fun and I made a few buck.

Now, the feds are closing them down. The Commodities Futures Trading Commission has order the site closed in February. I don't understand why. But I took what money I had there out. If something changes, I may get back to playing in political futures markets because I have found I can make some money on obvious bets because not everyone sees the world like I do. I don't understand why anyone would think the 2020 presidential election was tainted because it was obvious more than a year ahead how it would come out. I don't often like how the American electorate behaves, but in many cases it is predictable enough. Somewhat irrational, but predictable. What the futures sites did that someone objects to is not clear to me, and if they get new life, I may rejoin.

So long, PredictIt. I cannot predict our future with confidence, but it doesn't look good. That's my last bet.