Runoff

 Today is the runoff election in Georgia for the senate seat. I placed a bet on Senator Warnock. Technically, I placed a bet that Republicans would end up with 49 senators this term, because that gave me the lowest cost to buy in. This morning, my bet has increased from purchase price on the contract by 13 cents.

I took the money I got from betting on Democrats to hold the Senate and put it in this last contract. I started with just over 17 dollars, and now have 51 (if I cash out before the election results). I could end up with $54. Or I could lose it all.

The media insist that the election is too close to call. Some sites, including 538, make the case for each candidate to win. Elections in America are not easily predictable because most voters are poorly informed and vote based on emotions and biases, and not on facts or reason. That's why Ohio now will be represented by an unqualified blowhard in the Senate when they could have had a competent and proven representative. But Ohio also has a number of embarrassing Congressional representatives, which have been elected repeatedly despite their non-record of knowledge or usefulness. Or outright foolishness and lies. That is why betting on elections is not particularly wise.

Still, I like the game. I have earned a bit of money in the political markets over the last couple of years. I don't put much money or effort into it, but I bet when I am pretty sure I will win. Like this time.

Now, with Brian Kemp adding the power of his ground game to Herschel Walker's campaign, things might change. It is hard to understand why anyone would support Walker for elected office, and his scandals may hound him out of public life and possibly into prison if properly pursued, but it seems nearly half of Georgia's voters will vote for him anyway. It seems to me that he has committed tax fraud in Texas unless he is actually a resident of Texas, which would mean he is ineligible to run in Georgia under Georgia election law and has also committed voter fraud there. But still, he is a candidate so many are supporting. That makes me sad. American has so much to offer, but our potential will never be reached so long as so many pay so little attention, and actually vote for candidates like this.

So, tomorrow, I will either be harvesting my winnings, having tripled my money in this election cycle, or I'll be out of the political market entirely. Oh, well, I hear the site is shutting down in February, anyway. It was fun.