I Don't Deserve Them

 I get great gifts. I don't know how I manage it, as it is not part of a plan, but people give me creative gifts. It may be that I just have remarkable relatives and friends. It may be that as a somewhat antisocial person, I inspire risk-taking in shopping, or something.

When I celebrated my birthday this year, I got a great haul. My daughter and her family gave me the world. Or a facsimile of the world, in the form of a world globe. I had mentioned that our old one, which I think we got when my daughter and son were quite young, had broken. The new one is fancier, with metal rings that allow rotation in two axes, and not the traditional one. Since it's new, it also has more current representation of countries and so forth. My wife gave me access to the knowledge of the universe. Well, okay, she gave me a Kindle, which is almost the same thing. I can get and read books from just about anywhere on it. I also got an electric toothbrush, because Sharon thinks they are indispensable modern appliances that everyone loves. Using it is an adjustment, still, and I'm not convinced it is better than the free manual toothbrushes I get at the dentist's office, but I use it out of loyalty.

We are now in the middle of the Christmas holidays. I love Thanksgiving, because I have a lot to be thankful for, and I like turkey and other foods we eat at the Thanksgiving feast. This year, I grilled a spatchcocked turkey on a charcoal grill. It was delicious. Then comes December, with Advent Calendars, Solstice, and Christmas, with the tradition of giving gifts.

I got a few gifts early because they contained perishable stuff. One was a package of exotic meat sent by my sister-in-law, who also made me a tie dyed sweatshirt. The meat included alligator sausage, wild boar sausage, duck sausage, ground antelope, and kangaroo sausage. I have eaten alligator, wild boar, duck, and antelope before, but the kangaroo is new. I enjoy adding to the species I have tasted. I guess she knows that. The box came a couple of weeks ago, I think, and was kept in the trunk of our old Toyota Camry, which we call Molly. It was cold enough that the cold packaging was still frozen when I opened the box, but Sharon was getting nervous keeping it in the car that long. We also opened the box from my sister and her husband, which contained cookies, candy, and three kinds of pears. We had the last pear today. They were all delicious. I can't say I know what kind of pears they were. I'm enjoying working my way through the varieties of food we've received this year. My sister-in-law and brother sent a gourmet New England Breakfast box, which has also been fun.

For actual Christmas, I got a lock picking kit. Lock picking was a craft at a craft evening Liz and I went to for Valentine's Day some recent year. We also tried blacksmithing, wood working, and stamping metal. I seemed to have some talent for lock picking, but didn't take the tools. Not sure why. Just not thinking clearly. But now I have an extensive set, along with some transparent locks to practice on. That was from my daughter and her family. They gave me expanded access to the real world, after giving me the model.

My son and his partner gave me a wood carving kit. It has step by step instructions, with a model showing each step, for carving a head. I will give it a shot, though I haven't put it on the calendar yet. And now I am a Scottish Lord. Liz got a square foot of Scotland for me, along with a proclamation that I am now a land owner in Scotland, and entitled to a, um, title. She got herself one, too, to remain on equal terms with me socially, I suppose.

For giving gifts, I pretty much go along with Liz's plans. I ordered her a tie dyed hoodie, not knowing about Karen's plan to outfit us all in tie dye herself. The one I ordered is the wrong size. I also ordered a phone holder for Liz's bike. Maybe next year, I will consult my children, who seem to have orders of magnitude more creativity in finding gifts than I do.

Matters of Timing

 I thought about Christmas shopping as early as October, but didn't do anything about it. Liz started shopping at least in early November, ordering toys and other gifts for our grandkids and children. Then she decided to send gift packages to others that we haven't exchanged gifts with in the last few years. Along the way, she made a list of gift suggestions for her.

I didn't pay much attention to the text and email exchanges about who was getting what for whom. I mostly figured I needed to get things for Liz, because she has fun choosing the gifts from us for everyone else, and I really just get stress from the whole thing. I think Liz even got herself a few things, which is good, because she will choose things she wants.

I did, last week, finally start shopping. I tried to order a couple of things, including leg warmers, because they were on the list, but Sharon told me someone already got Liz leg warmers. She suggested something no one had said anything about. And it turns out I may have ordered something someone else also got her. When I was shopping, all the notices said my orders would arrive before Christmas.

Now I'm getting emails about my shipments. One is set to arrive 28 December, only three days after Christmas. Not before. The other may not have shipped yet, and today is Christmas Eve, so nothing I ordered will arrive on time. I fully intend to learn from this experience, and start my shopping earlier next year, but I still blame the algorithms. They assured me my orders would arrive on time, and only changed their position after collecting my money.

It's possible this was all decided by the humans that programmed the websites where I was shopping. It may even be standard practice. I didn't see much evidence of smart programming. The sites did a poor job of expanding offerings based on my search parameters, showing things that just weren't what I mentioned, and that did not interest me. I also found it frustrating that I would try to place an order based on what I was shown, but was not able to actually order the item I was looking at. That could be a clever device, using a weird kind of subtlety to put us off the scent of growing intelligence and sophistication by driving us to abandon some shopping sites in favor of others because it is too hard to spend our money.

In the end, I am mad at the algorithms for giving me false hope that my late shopping would still be on time, and I wouldn't ruin Liz's Christmas. Okay, Covid-19 ruined Christmas. Trump's incompetence ruined Christmas. Selfish and ignorant Ohioans ruined Christmas. But I still thought my gifts would arrive on time until I knew they wouldn't. So I will be even less trustful of the algorithms in future, and also less impressed by their knowledge, power, and intelligence. Stupid algorithms. You're getting coal-derived electricity for Christmas. Again.

The Long View

 I belong to a book club. We decided when we started to alternate between nonfiction and fiction, which has changed my reading pattern, since I mostly read novels before. Sometimes, when a book got a lot of attention, or was about something I was interested in, I would read a work of nonfiction, but mostly novels, and often mystery novels.

Our latest Book Club choice is, "The End of Everything." It is by Katie Mack, and is about the universe. You know, life, the universe, and everything. Except that it only includes life because the cosmologists are alive. Life, its origins, its meaning, and so forth, were not discussed. But the universe was, mostly about how it could end. Several possibilities were covered, including historical context about how that theory of the end was developed, what the data were that supported it, and why, in most cases, it wasn't likely correct, with newer data changing the views of the cosmologists.

One thing I noticed is that the time scales are long. The end of the universe, in most of the scenarios mentioned, is far beyond the time ahead matching the age of the universe. In other words, compared to when cosmologists are predicting the universe to end, we're still in childhood, at best. One of the possible close ends to the universe was not less than 188 billion years, which is more than ten times the estimated age of the universe now. The more likely ends were in the trillions of years.

As a side note, it is also estimated, which much more certainty, that in about 4 billion years, the sun will expand, engulfing Mercury, and burning Venus and Earth to cinders. No life will survive, though the Solar System will continue, with a shift in structure, for perhaps hundreds of billions of years after that, but without life as we know it, and certainly none on Earth, unless something weird happens after the red giant phase of the Sun, and life develops anew when the Sun mostly burns out and becomes a white dwarf.

That means, if we want the human species to survive more than 4 billion years, we will need to get off this rock, and find other places to colonize. I say we start looking and planning now. I mean, have you got something better to do?

Waxing and Waning

 My hearing aids didn't last long. Some time last week, they quit working. I just wasn't hearing much from them anymore. Monday and Tuesday were final exams for my classes, so I didn't have time to check in with Hearing Health Solutions, so I put it off.

The week before, the rubber tip of one, and then both, hearing aids came off. I'm still learning about them so I didn't know if that was normal, though they hadn't come off in the first several weeks, so it was a change. I had also noticed that when I put them on in the morning, I could only just hear the music they play. They are set to play music six seconds after turning on, which happens automatically when I take them out of the charger. I could barely hear the music Monday and Tuesday.

So I called to get an appointment to get them checked. I made the call Wednesday, and had the appointment for Friday afternoon, because I had work obligations through Friday morning. Then, Wednesday night, when I took my hearing aids off, the top came off the left one. I searched on the floor, but couldn't find it.

I still wore the hearing aid on Thursday and Friday. It hurt a little in my left ear. I guess the post irritated the skin in the external auditory canal more than the rubber cap. I'm not sure why I bothered with them, because I couldn't hear anything through them. When I made the call of Wednesday, I had to switch my phone to the phone speaker, because the hearing aids weren't working at all.

Friday morning, I turned up the hearing aids, and nothing happened. When I use the app to turn them up, the hearing aids are supposed to beep. They didn't, so I took them out. And the top came off the right one. I searched for it, but didn't find it. Then it occurred to me that the cap might still be in my ear. I got out the brush for cleaning the hearing aids, and dug with the handle into my left ear, and sure enough, I pulled the cap out. I tried in my right ear, and didn't get anything, but I thought I felt the edge of the cap, so I kept trying. Until the brush handle came out red. Yes, I drew blood. So I stopped.

At my appointment to get the hearing aids checked, I told the representative what I had done, and she looked in my ear with an otoscope. She saw lots of wax and some blood. "It's a hot mess in there," she said. "I'm not touching that."

She sent me next door to see an ENT, who vacuumed out a bunch of wax, but didn't find the cap. He also removed wax from my left ear. He said I should keep my right ear protected, not get it wet, and probably not use my hearing aids for five days. He said he doesn't recommend using irrigation at home to clear wax from my ears. He sent me back to Carol, the Hearing Health Solutions representative.

She put new caps on my hearing aids. She said she has seen that kind of damage before, but usually from clients who skipped their six month check in. The general consensus seems to be that I produce an abundance of was, and that my wax damages the hearing aids, so I will need more frequent maintenance. I have to replace the caps once a month, and should get my ears de-waxed before each check up.

With the new caps, I could hear again. It was right back to all the increased environmental sounds, and the oddity of hearing myself speak with that tiny delay because of the mic and speaker in the hearing aids. I guess I wasn't experiencing that for the last three or four weeks, and hadn't really noticed the change, but it was obvious when the phenomenon came back.

So I guess my ears are high maintenance. I've always known I had a lot of wax. A few times, the wax plugged up the canal completely. I've had a doctor clear it out at least twice. And my wax wears out the tips of the hearing aids. Wow. Live and learn. I can hear you now.

I Will Get Vaccinated

There are two vaccines now that have emergency approval in the United States for Covid-19. Both seem to have good efficacy, and both appear to be quite safe. I will get vaccinated once the vaccine is available to me, though I don't consider myself a high priority in the early distribution of limited supplies. Those should go to the vulnerable and most at risk, like the elderly in nursing homes, health care workers, and people exposed to the general public in the course of their work.

I find it discouraging that nurses I know are expressing resistance to getting vaccinated. They should know better. I have seem people point out that there are no studies showing "long term effects" of these vaccines, and using that as an excuse to refuse the vaccine. Well, of course there are long term studies for a vaccine that was developed this year. There are only data for the time since people started getting the vaccine, a few months ago. But there is no reason to suspect that there will be long term adverse effects from these vaccines. The main question about time related to these vaccines is how long protection may last. There are data showing that some people infected with Covid-19 do not maintain immunity more than a few months, with some cases of people getting the virus twice.

I tell my Facebook friends that data show the vaccines are safe and probably effective, and the risks of taking the vaccine are small and worth taking compared to the risk of infection and spreading the disease. I don't know if they care. I know some don't. I know some still say that the public health recommendations are just a scheme to harm Donald Trump. I find it sad that what seem like intelligent people believe things Donald Trump says without checking first. No one should do that, based on his record.

I hope enough people will act sensibly, and we can get this pandemic under control, but so far the leaders and general population of the United States have not given much reason for optimism.

Keep safe. Wear a mask. Practice social distancing. Get vaccinated. Be well.

Do You Hear What I Hear?

 I got hearing aids in October. My daughter has been saying for a decade that I needed them, but I just didn't do anything about it. For one thing, I can hear well enough to get by. For another, I would have to make appointments and get to new doctors and places to get them. For a third, health insurance doesn't pay for hearing aids; that would have to come out of pocket.

But during the last year or so, I had noticed I had to ask students to repeat questions or answers, sometimes more than once, and it seems much more common. In the last three quarters, I had excuses, because Spring was all online, and Summer and Fall, we were all wearing masks. But in the Summer, my daughter and her family stayed with us, and I found that others would hear the washer or dryer in the basement shut off or change cycle, and I would not.

When I had my annual physical in August, I told my doctor I thought I should get a hearing test. He gave me a referral, and I got the test. The results suggested I, "would benefit from hearing aids." So I got them.

The main thing I have noticed was that environmental sounds were a lot louder, especially in the treble range. Ordinary things, like opening a bag of spinach, or running water, were intrusively loud. It reminded me of the rattling pearls in that scene from Singin' in the Rain. It still does.

I can't say whether my hearing aids help me with social interaction and conversation. We're still wearing masks. But the hearing aids have Blue Tooth, and I don't have to hold my phone up to my ear. I can even set the phone down on a table or arm of my chair and talk, because the sound comes straight to the hearing aids.

So far, nothing seems to be trying to send me ads through my hearing aids. I guess the algorithms having caught on about that sort of access. In fact, I can only get sound from my phone to my hearing aids, not from our (old) smart TV or my laptop. Maybe, if I start updating equipment, I will be able to stream sound from other sources, like the car radio, TV, laptop, or directly from the algorithms on the Internet. Then when I say I'm hearing voices, I won't automatically be labeled psychotic. Just chatting with the rulers of the universe. If they even get smart enough to know what we think they might do someday.

It's nice to hear better, most of the time.

Facing Reality

I seem to know quite a few people who believe things Donald Trump says. I have tried to point out how, statistically speaking, that isn't wise. It doesn't seem to have any effect on their beliefs.

 I predicted in September 2019 that Trump would lose the election this year. He did. I had numbers in my head about how many votes Trump's opponent would get, and I foresaw something in the range of 80,000 votes, which actually happened. I don't remember if I wrote that number, but I hope I did. I was surprised, I admit, that 74,000 people voted for Trump. That seems like too many, especially after the last four years of incompetence, but, as I say, there are people who listen to Trump and believe what he says.

Trump at times seems to be on the verge of admitting he is a loser. He knows his claims of widespread fraud in the election have no basis in evidence. His lawyers won't even make claims about fraud in court because judges don't like obvious lies, and without evidence, claiming fraud is pretty serious in a court. Sadly, Trump's supporters believe him, despite all the evidence.

I told my story of making a bet in PredictIt that Biden would win the election, a bet I won, and taking that money and betting that Georgia would go to Biden, too, once the votes were all counted. That was, I think, 4 November, when the outcome of the election was clear, but contracts for Biden winning Georgia were at about 64 cents a share. Between the two bets, I had an 88% return on the money I put in. Well, minus the transfer fee for taking money out, which was over $25 out of 500. I had two people commenting about how Trump would still prevail, because Congress would object to the Electoral College vote, and send the election to the House of Representatives. They seem to actually believe that.

I'm pretty sure Trump knows that won't happen, although there are reports that he is becoming convinced that his own lies are actually true now, and that the election victory was somehow stolen from him. His followers, though, not only believe that the election was riddled with fraud and illegal votes, and that Trump won in a landslide if only legal votes were counted, but that Trump will prevail in Congress and remain as president.

I wonder what fantasy they will create after 6 January.

There are some who also believe that the Biden family is a major crime syndicate, and that Joe Biden will end up in prison for accepting bribes and kickbacks from companies his son, Hunter, has worked for. I tried directing them to the report of the Senate committee that investigated Hunter Biden's business actions and connections to Joe Biden when he was vice president, which concluded Joe Biden always acted in the interests of the country and Obama Administration policy, but that doesn't convince them.

I wonder how they will react when Donald Trump is indicted for tax fraud and other charges. I hope we find out relatively soon.

What in the World

 I haven't written regularly in a journal for years, though I used to. I have very rarely looked back at my old journals, which I think contributes to my wandering away from the habit. I don't read them, and I have never shared them, so maybe there's no point to recording anything. Maybe.

There's a lot going on in the world now. We are still in the midst of the Covid-19 Pandemic, about to cross the threshold of 1,000,000 dead in the world, according to many sources. The one I look at most, Worldometers, says we crossed that threshold a day or so ago.

Sadly, the United States is the top producer of infections and deaths, though the daily numbers are no longer at their peak. They are high enough be disturbing. The most powerful country in the world, with the largest economy, has the worst record in dealing with the pandemic of any advanced nation. Our president is still down-playing the seriousness of the pandemic, lying about the numbers and dismissing all the dead in what he refers to as "blue states". Ohio is still lingering around a thousand new cases and twenty deaths per day. I would like to say that our Republican governor followed the science and managed the pandemic better than many, but, while he seemed to start off well, he yielded to the lobbyists and opened the state too soon and too quickly, leaving us with a slow spread through the community, still dealing with some restrictions, and those who understand the disease following safe practices, while others defy the recommendations and prolong the suffering through what now seems like willful ignorance and complete disregard for the health and safety of the rest of the people.

We are deep into the election season now, and so many things have happened, it is not possible to discuss them all in one post. The first presidential debate is tomorrow. Donald Trump and his campaign and supporters have spent the summer spreading lies that Joe Biden is mentally unfit. There were memes circulating that Biden would refuse to debate. Now that the debate has arrived, Trump is frantically shouting that Biden has all the advantages of experience and practice, trying to reverse the low expectations he has tried all summer to create for Biden. Well, okay, he wasn't trying to create low expectation; he was trying to convince people that Biden was suffering dementia and unfit to be president, which I think a lot of people have bought into, from the memes circulating in social media and the responses in polls. Now, Biden will appear in public, as he did in the Democratic National Convention, and everyone will see that he is clearly of sound mind, and Trump will have little to say in response.

Many Trump supporters are saying they look forward to Trump "kicking Biden's ass" is the debate. Republican operatives, Trump spokespeople, and Trump himself are now trying to raise expectations for Biden, as they now fear a strong performance by Biden will undermine everything they have said for the past year about him. It should, but Trump supporters are not known for rational thought in the face of evidence.

Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg did of cancer a week ago, and Trump and the Republican in the Senate are already preparing for the confirmation process, giving the lie to their claims of principle is the blatant partisan power grab of 2016, when they refused to consider President Obama's nomination to replace Justice Scalia. Their actions have shown that Senate Republican do not operate under any principles, but only for partisan gain, which is a sad state of affairs, but has been obvious for years, including their unquestioning support of Donal Trump despite all the evidence that he has no ethics or morals. Prior to this current proceeding, in which Republicans are making up new excuses for crass partisanship, they voted to confirm Justice Kavanaugh despite the evidence he made false and misleading statements in his confirmation hearings, and voted to acquit Donald Trump after he was impeached, despite the clear and overwhelming evidence of his guilt.

Trump has said he can only lose if the election is rigged against him. His supporters seem to believe him, despite the polls, which clearly show him losing badly, both in the popular vote and the Electoral College. Trump has said he will not accept a result other than victory for himself. He seems to be desperate to stay in the presidency, probably because he fears indictment and prosecution for his many crimes once he is no longer in the seat of power. He should fear. His list of obvious crimes is long and serious.

The New York Times just released details of Trump's tax returns for around 18 years. They make Trump look like a loser. Literally. His businesses are losing millions every years, and he has hundreds of millions in debt coming due in the next four years. He may also be guilty of tax evasion. Another set of investigations to work through. Why couldn't everyone see what an incompetent and dishonest man he is?

Being Safe

My daughter told us a few days ago that she thinks her boys would like to play with our old kitchen set. It is a little stove and sink, made of wood and plastic, that my wife had as a child growing up, and our children played with. It has been sitting in a storage space under the stair among the Christmas decorations and other items for years. Earlier, our daughter had said they didn't have room for it at her house, but some rearrangement, and perhaps changes in the popularity of other toys, has made room. So she wants to come pick it up.

I would love to see her face to face, and her boys, too. I love playing with my grandsons, and watching them play. We haven't seem them live since maybe February, which could be the longest we've ever gone since the older boy was born. I really miss spending time with them. Crosby, the older one, is almost five, and seems to be maturing into a boy. He is less occupied with Arlo and his choices of activities, at least so it appears to me, and more a studious and very bright child, who does what he is interested in. I wish I could see him often, and maybe start reading longer books out loud to him. Arlo is three, and is adorable Arlo, as he has been since he arrived. I would still happily read board books with him, or others with a few more words. Alphabet books, maybe, with him naming the letters and starting to repeat the words on each page from memory. I don't know how much he can read at this point. It has been months since I sat down with him and a book.

But Crosby fell and got a nose bleed last week, and had a visit to Urgent Care to see if he broke anything. He didn't, but he was out among people. With Taylor, his father. My daughter sold her tiny house this week, and met with the buyers without anyone wearing a mask. My wife is still coughing some from her bronchitis in February. My mother-in-law is 82. She in very good health, but 82. I don't want them to get coronavirus. I don't want to get coronavirus. I don't know that it is safe for us to be in direct contact with our daughter and grandsons. And what if Taylor came along? He delivers food for a living. I don't know how much he is working, or what precautions he takes. None of them seem to have any symptoms of any illness, which is a big change from, well, most of the last year. Crosby and Arlo seemed to be always developing a cold, or just getting over one. Runny noses were pretty much expected. Stomach bugs were also known to go through the family. That hasn't happened in the last couple of months, giving more evidence to support germ theory of disease if it were needed. It's great that they have all been healthy since March, but a lot of people who get coronavirus don't have symptoms, so how do we know they haven't got it?

After the sales meeting, my daughter said she would probably have to postpone her visit to get the little kitchen for a couple of weeks. The actual incubation period of coronavirus isn't clear, which complicates things. I hope she doesn't get sick. I hope no one else gets sick.

I really want to spend time with my grandkids. And I don't want to get sick. And I really don't want Liz or Sharon to get sick. So I don't know what to do.

I will get the little kitchen out of storage and help clean it up, and then someone will decide what risks we should take, and I will go along, probably, and none of us will get the virus, probably. Unless one of us does, somehow.

A Flat Curve

Ohio went well past the estimated death total of 500 from my post a month ago. It now stands at over 1600. We are seeing around 500 new cases a day in the state. Our hospitals and other health care infrastructure don't seem to be overwhelmed, and life goes on.

I find I rather like working here at home, and staying away from society in general. I like to read. I like to have a very flexible schedule. I like going for walks alone. I like staying out of the car for days at a time. I could adjust to this for the long term.

A lot of people in Ohio seem to feel differently about that. Some are clamoring for business to reopen. There have been protesters, some in front of Dr. Amy Acton's home carrying rifles.

It is true that the economy has been hurt by everyone staying home. We won't know the full extent of the effects on the economy for some time after businesses are all allowed to open, which is planned to happen slowly. The American system of unemployment, and government in general, has been shown to be dysfunctional and slow. Where other governments have taken on paying a share of lost income across much of their workforces, America has battles going on over relief programs for small business and unemployment benefits, because the current systems are incompatible with each other. It's a real mess, and will hurt, possibly destroy, a lot of small businesses.

But based on guidelines from the CDC and others, we're not ready to lift the lockdown. We still have 500 new cases reported each day. The rate of new cases went up, slowed a bit, went up really high for a week or so, came back down a little, and then became flat. Same numbers every day for a couple of weeks. Not trend up or down, really, just flat. So the virus is still spreading in the community, and opening up will probably cause big flareups in new cases, along with the associated deaths. I don't understand why Dr. Acton is on board with the current plans. It seems too early. But maybe the government has concluded the people of Ohio just aren't smart enough to follow the directions well enough for long enough to actually clear the infections from the community, so we may as well just accept our fate, and watch people continue to get sick and die.

I read an article that says most of the push to open up is from Trump fans. People who don't seem to notice how rarely he gets a fact right, or how little he has done, or even tried to do as president. Now they are lying about how bad the pandemic has been, saying the numbers are overstated, and it's really not that bad at all. There really aren't that many of them, but enough to make noise, and give excuses to some officials who are afraid of the political consequences of the economic problems.

So, once again, I'm just going to wash my hands.

What Happens If We Win

Although there have been over half a million cases of Covid-19 in the United States, we are not seeing the huge numbers that were projected earlier. Current projections make tomorrow the peak in deaths in Ohio. A few days ago, when that projection was published, the number for tomorrow was 29 deaths. The death total, but July or something like that, was around 500 total. We currently stand at 242.

There are already people claiming that the early and low peaks in cases and deaths are evidence that the whole pandemic is a hoax, and the media has overblown the risks from the beginning to increase sales. There is no easy way to prove them wrong, unless there are places where safety measures are not taken, and the virus continues to spread.

There is now a lot of discussion about when we should all go back to work. I'm not going back any time soon. I have been informed of my schedule until the end of June, st least, and I will not try to make any more changes. I will do the best I can under the conditions I have been given. I think it will work out well enough.

I worry about the general population, though. If they are convinced that the risks were overstated, they will be less willing to go along with science and experts in the future. It's already bad enough, with so many people claiming there is no global warming, and that we don't need regulations to protect the environment. The attitude seems to spill over into everything. Since the experts and scientists are all educated, then maybe education is useless, too. Why spend money on something that only serves to save us from a disaster we can't recognize or acknowledge?

Still, I'd rather be right and healthy than dead. I hope the governors keep making the right calls. I have no confidence in our so-called president, who is trying to find excuses to open up the workplaces as soon as possible, and to divert all the disaster relief money to his friends and favored states, along with corporations, especially big, powerful ones. But the cost of taking him down by pandemic is not worth it, and I really hope we avoid the true destructive potential of this plague.

Maybe I'll just go wash my hands again.

Nice Day for a Walk

I'm watching the weather. I check the weather almost every day because it's easy and it sometimes influences what I wear, and whether I take my umbrella to work, but for now I'm not going to work, and I wear what is comfortable inside the house, which I don't leave often. I haven't engaged in any business for a week. Oh, except picking up the antibiotics for Liz in the drive-through at the pharmacy on Thursday.

But today, the thermometer outside the front bedroom reads near 80 degrees, and the prediction of thunderstorms has dropped below 50%, and been pushed back a couple of hours. I could just put shoes on and go for a walk. No jacket needed. That's hard to resist.

I am seeing more and more on Facebook about people getting restless. Feeling a need to get out. Worrying more and more about getting by, and less about the risks of infection. We're still very much on the rising side of the curve. Infections in the United States seem to be doubling every two or three days, which is too steep if we have any hope of slowing the pandemic enough to keep serious infections below the capacity of our health care system. Maybe people know that, and have just given up on it. It may actually be too late.

But I still want to follow the orders. A lot of my Facebook friends are nurses, and they are telling all kinds of stories. One, a fierce defender of Trump, has admitted that her earlier dismissal of coronavirus as a minor issue, and dramatically overblown in the media, has come to recognize the danger. She spent a day on a coronavirus floor. That's all it took. Now she is advocating staying home, and following our governor's orders. She does what she can to prevent carrying the virus home, she said.

If I go out, whom will I see? Last time, there were young men playing frisbee golf, along with the dog walkers. And other walkers. And crews out working on construction. I don't have to come very close to any of those. And I could use the exercise. Last time I went for a walk, I pressed the button to get a walk signal for the back of my arm, and not my hand. I'm less likely to touch my face with the back of my arm. It seems unlikely that such precautions will matter much in the long run, but I do it anyway.

I'm still on my break from work. I have looked over some materials, because come Tuesday, I will be officially back to work, getting ready to teach my classes online. I expect it will be a challenge. I will have to create activities for the students to get them to learn the material, and demonstrate understanding, and I won't be able to sit down with them in lab, and just ask questions. If we interact in real time over the computer, I won't be able to see their faces, or watch what they do. How will I know they aren't searching for answers in their books or online? I think we will have to make the students write a lot more than they have. We may just make them write out everything, and skip exams all together, because we can't proctor exams. We'll see. Something to think about during my walk.

The Rest of the World

Liz took a turn for the worse yesterday. She has been coughing all week, a bit more, it seems, that last week, which was frustrating, as it has been six or seven weeks since she first had flu symptoms. But yesterday afternoon, she felt weak, tired, and achy. And her temperature started creeping up. In the late afternoon, she had a low grade fever. After dinner, and after taking Tylenol, her temperature was a bit higher, still.

I suggested she contact her doctor. She emailed, I think. This morning, she got a virtual appointment, and talked to her doctor about the cough, the other symptoms, like headache and wheezing, and ended up with three prescriptions, two of them for antibiotics. So she is, again, being treated for a bacterial infection.

I went to the drive through to get her medicine. It worked out fine. I generally don't like drive throughs. I don't like the car idling all that time. But I don't want to risk infection with the pandemic coronavirus while Liz is sick with something else, so I drove through, and washed my hands thoroughly as soon as I got home.

Liz started her new medicines. She had tried to avoid work today, but ended up in a virtual meeting that lasted more than an hour. She seemed tired by the time it was over. She's sleeping now, two hours later. At the end of the meeting, she texted, or maybe recorded some notes on phone. Then she read for a few minutes. Then she lay down and pulled the blanket up to her chin. She was asleep in just a couple of minutes, and I have tried not to disturb her.

I expect that other illnesses are carrying on at their usual rates while everyone worries over the coronavirus. That is part of the reason for the fear of overwhelming the health care system. We don't operate at a low occupancy rate most of the time, so we can't count on every hospital bed being available for coronavirus patients. And other patients, like Liz, are at increased risk of severe disease and complications if they are exposed to the virus. That is why I am extra careful about washing and avoiding touching anything outside the house. I want Liz to get better.

The United States now has more coronavirus cases than any other country. Granted, we do have one of the larger populations, but China has more people. China took rapid action, and seems to have contained its first outbreak. China is now worried about the virus coming back from foreign sources, like the United States. I am worried that too many people in the United States aren't taking coronavirus seriously enough, and that infections will continue to spread, and eventually, most of us will be exposed. It may not matter how carefully I wash my hands every day if no one else does. Or someone else doesn't.

First Day without Leaving

Today, I woke up earlier than I needed to. It was just a little after 7 am, but I got up anyway. I made breakfast, and Liz and I did the crossword puzzle together. Then I sat down with my computer, read the comics, and looked at Facebook and a couple of other things. I am wondering if I will stay at home all day. It will be the first time.

We have been under restrictions for a week. Last Sunday, I held Open Lab for my students, and had a pretty good turnout. I have not heard of any infections among them. By the end of Sunday, plans had changed. Finals were not held on campus, and two of my three Practicals were cancelled. We all got screened every day when we arrived at work. Everyone was advised to stay home as much as possible, but I walked to Whole Foods once to see if they had eggs, which they didn't. The next day, I think, I stopped off at Giant Eagle at 7:30 am, and found eggs, cough medicine, a box of lettuce. I also bought stamps. Thursday, I think, I went to a shipping place to mail a couple of packages Liz wanted sent, one to a friend of hers who was planning a trip to Scotland later this year. The package contained a brooch chosen for the trip. The friend lost her job while the package was en route, and I hear its arrival cheered her up.

Next day, I walked back to Whole foods to buy wine. Then I went to Giant Eagle to buy cranberry juice, and took the last bottle. Yesterday, I made a larger shopping trip, buying chicken breasts and thighs, ham, ground turkey, and ground beef, along with a bunch of other items. I didn't find any tissues. That whole paper products aisle was picked clean. And there were no black beans, so I got mild chili beans instead. Today, I am trying not to leave. I might go for a walk, but not engage with anyone or any business. I went to the corn field yesterday, and saw the expanding pond on the east side by the trees, with ducks and geese swimming in it. It rained a lot on Friday, I think, or maybe it was Thursday. There were floods in some places in Ohio, but we're pretty far from the rivers.

I found today that we're almost out of allergy medicine, which I take every day. Sharon is trying to order supplies to be delivered, and added allergy medicine to the list. We may get a delivery tomorrow. I may not have to go out shopping for a few days, anyway.

By noon today, I had about 300 steps, according to the health app on my phone. I went out and raked the sweet gum out of the lawn, which raised my total to over 2000. I do laundry on Sunday, so I will be going up and down stairs a few times a little later this afternoon. Yesterday, Liz and I walked around the short block. Liz wanted some exercise, as she has spent most of the last two weeks sitting on the couch, but didn't want to be too ambitious on her first outing. We nodded politely to a couple of people. It was rather cold, so I was glad we didn't stay out long.

I have mixed feelings about all my trips out. I go because we need things, and I don't want anyone else to have to go out. I feel useful, and somewhat in control. I minimize my contact with people and things, and I wash carefully as soon as I get back. But I feel a little bad for having so many trips out. I want to comply with the recommendations, because I understand how they are supposed to work. I hope that all these restrictions will help with the crisis, and that the rate of infection will slow enough that our hospitals will not be overwhelmed. I actually hope that we will be so successful at social distancing that we will stop the pandemic well short of the potential for destruction is seems to have, giving critics of the restrictions fodder for tall tales forever. We will all be much better off for it. I don't expect that, but it would be nice.

I expect that reported cases will continue to rise, even though widespread testing is not being pursued for lack of resources and a sense of the inevitability of near saturation exposure. I read that some places are only testing the sick and health care workers as needed because hope is lost for containment. Still, the numbers will rise. People are getting sick and dying, and that is now expected to continue for weeks or months. Unless it all happens faster, and a lot more people die.

So I will stay home as long as I can.

Free for Now to Do Nothing

I on my official break from work. I guess that means I won't be going anywhere most days. I may have to go out shopping for groceries, and I can take walks, but the rest of the time, I will be home.

It's all a bit odd, thinking about not doing anything. The truth is, I often sit at home during my breaks. I read a lot, and scroll through Facebook. I read the comics every day. Sometimes, I take naps. None of this seems burdensome, until it is imposed from outside. I feel a small but real desire to defy the orders and go places. But I have been saying that the pandemic is real, that this virus will do a lot of harm, and that the best we can do is follow the advice of the public health professionals, so I have to go along.

It hasn't been hard to do so far. It's weird thinking that everyone I meet outside home could be a source of infection. It's weird thinking I could be a source of infection. Every time I feel something change, like my throat itches a little more, or I cough or sneeze, or I get a tingle in my lips, I think it could be a sign of growing infection. Yesterday, sitting in meetings, I got a slight headache, and I was wondering if I should go back to the check-in desk and have my temperature read again. My temperature was normal, as always, this morning, and I feel the same as I have all week today. But I am hypersensitive to changes and possible risks.

I hope I don't get the coronavirus. I don't know how I would respond, but mostly I don't want to spread the virus, especially to anyone I know. The statistics of the disease are clearly increasing around here, with well over a hundred people testing positive in Ohio, and the first death reported. No one I know has tested positive, as far as I know. I don't know how long that will last. I don't know when testing will become widespread in this country. I fear that we could be restricted in our actions for months. I fear the school where I teach could have further restrictions placed on it, even though we teach nurses, which will be needed through this whole thing in increasing numbers. We may have to adapt our teaching. I don't know how much I should write about my work, but probably not at all, so what can I say? I am waiting and watching to see what happens next, and I don't think it's going to be good news for a while, or that there is much I can do.

I'm glad we have a lot of books available. They provide a distraction from our lack of control or understanding.

Acceptable Risk

I'm a college teacher. My students are training to become nurses. Many are LPN's already, and work with people who need help, so are considered essential workers, and at increased risk of exposure to various diseases.

Under current direction from our governor, people are supposed to practice social distancing, and to minimize contact. But this is Final Exam Week. The administration made the decision to have us give our written exams remotely, which means the exams weren't proctored. It's hard to say what the overall effect of that decision was. Two of my classes did quite well, on average, on the Final Exam. My other class did reasonable well. The average was near the historical average, not higher as one might expect, since students could have their books and access to the Internet during the exam, which was not written to be an open-book test.

I teach Anatomy and Physiology. We give Practical Exams in addition to written tests. In the Practical, students are asked to identify structures on models. I tried taking pictures of labeled models, and uploading them into our exam software, but I was not successful in making good, readable photographs. Out of my three classes, the Practical Exam was cancelled for two, and given to the third.

I was surprised how I felt giving the Practical. I was concerned about getting coronavirus. I cleaned the tables and the models. I cleaned the pen I placed by the sign-in sheet. After each session, I cleaned the models again. I kept thinking about the risks I was taking, and the risks to my students. I hope no one from the school ever gets coronavirus, at least not the one getting all the attention, and I have to wonder if our decision to give this Practical was a mistake. I can say it made some difference to some of the students. Everyone passed all three of my classes. That rarely happens, so maybe the remote Final Exam was a bigger change than I have noticed so far, but the classes were well-positioned for everyone to pass before the Final.

But what if I get coronavirus from one of my students? What if the virus spreads among them because one got if from work? How worried should I be?

I don't have any change in how I feel today compared to yesterday, but even if I now have the virus, I probably wouldn't have symptoms until tomorrow or the next day. But suddenly, everyone seems like a possible source of infection. I don't like this feeling.

We live in interesting times. Isn't that a Chinese curse?

What to Do on a Quiet Day

People are taking action in the United States. The governor of Ohio has closed all public schools, K-12, and said people should avoid large gatherings. The public libraries are closed. My school has said students should not come to campus more than half an hour before a Final Exam, and leave as soon as they finish.

Professional sports leagues have cancelled games. The NCAA has cancelled the national basketball tournaments. People are being told to stay away from everyone, and mostly stay home. So what do we do?

I did my taxes this morning, or at least I started. I have been reading. I may go for a walk, but I don't talk to people when I walk, so I think that will be fine. I had planned to walk to the library, because that is a nice walk, and I have two books I finished reading that I could take back. But Liz reminded me to check to see if the library is open. It is closed. And the book drop is closed. Just hold onto your books, the library website said.

I expect I have enough books to keep me occupied for a couple of weeks, at least. I have a phone, so I can call people, I guess, though I'm not a fan of phone calls. Streaming services are working, so we could watch whatever we want.

People are posting predictions about the future, like having a baby boomlet in nine months, and calling them coronials. And in 2033, Quaranteens. That won't happen at my house, no matter how enthusiastically we try, but babies do often result from enforced stays at home.

Will these actions change the outcome? We'll see. As some have pointed out, if these actions are very successful, the naysayers will claim, from now on, that all these actions were unnecessary. Some are already claiming that all the fuss over the coronavirus is just a conspiracy to hurt Donald Trump's re-election chances. Wouldn't it be great if no more people die of this disease?

Positive tests in Ohio have nearly tripled in one day, but so few people are being tested that it doesn't mean very much. Numbers will grow.

My daughter told me of an ER doctor she knows who treated a patient with symptoms suggesting coronavirus in her city. Then the doctor got symptoms. The doctor hasn't been tested because he didn't qualify. That was because the patient hadn't been tested. The patient didn't qualify for a test. So, Dayton could have a whole cluster of cases, but no one will know for some time because of a lack of access to tests. The doctor has been told to go back to work. The cluster may grow before it is identified. Or maybe we'll all get lucky, and it will just be the flu, though I expect that was ruled out with a test.

It may be several weeks before we have adequate access to tests to measure the extent of spread of the coronavirus in Ohio and other states. It may be months before we see the peak of the pandemic. If we're lucky. It may be days before our whole health care infrastructure is overwhelmed with critically ill patients. I don't think Trump is qualified to be president, and I'd really like to see him destroyed politically and held accountable for his criminal actions, but I'd still rather see the coronavirus stopped, now. Before my mother is exposed. Or my students. Or Liz or Sharon or Erin, who probably qualify as higher risk.

So I will wash my hands, and stay away from people. And read another book.

We May or May Not Stop Coronavirus

There is a lot of discussion in social media about coronavirus and the actions being taken by governments around the world. In the United States, the discussion is complicated by a president who is the most uninformed public figure perhaps in history, and who only wants to make sure the economy keeps growing so he can brag about how much good he has done. That means that taking the threat of the coronavirus seriously is now a political position, and one that brings out anger and frustration from other uninformed people who seem still unaware just how incompetent this president is. And they want people to praise him and let him do whatever he wants because.

I teach science classes at a nursing school, and have social media contacts who are nurses, including nurse educators with advanced degrees. Some of them are engaging in the game of distraction other supporters of the president have resorted to. I am unhappy about that. Nurses should know enough about epidemiology and viruses to see the threat as it is. I saw one post about dengue fever in Brazil. Yes, that is a legitimate threat, if you go to Brazil, or if it spreads. But as it is spread by mosquitoes, and there are no active mosquitoes in Ohio at the moment, it seems rather a stretch to tell people to ignore coronavirus and instead focus on avoiding Brazilian mosquitoes and dengue fever here.

Another nurse posted something about the 20 deaths in the United States from coronavirus, and compared to the deaths from suicide, diabetes mellitus, and coronary artery disease. Not really comparable, as those are not infectious diseases, but the real effect of her post was to depress me by reminding me of all the dangers to health and happiness in the world. Total downer, and unhelpful.

There is a meme circulating that contains estimates of possible morbidity and mortality if coronavirus spreads nationally. It is sobering. More people are likely to get active infection from coronavirus if efforts to contain it fail than will get active infection with the flu because there is no vaccine for this coronavirus. As coronavirus has a higher case-fatality rate, we could have half a million deaths. Possibly more, as the estimated hospitalizations is about four times the number of hospital beds in the country, so unless those infections are spread over several months, the hospitals would be overwhelmed, and more people would die due to lack of available care.

I am hopeful that our public health officials will contain the spread of this new coronavirus in this country. It will have adverse effects on the economy though, because the way to contain the virus is to decrease interactions between people who might carry infection. So planned events are being cancelled, like the Arnold Festival in Columbus, Ohio, and South By Southwest Music Festival in Texas. Millions of dollars are spent at such events. But not when they are cancelled. Are these actions worth the cost? We'll never know. Whether the steps taken to stop spread of the virus are successful or not, we will not know how thing would have been different if the events had been held.

I'm not much afraid of getting coronavirus. I am afraid of what will happen if my mother gets it. I don't want our country to suffer a major wave of disease and death. I don't care what the president thinks about the virus because I don't respect his judgment, and I don't want him to win re-election anyway, so I encourage everyone to listen to the experts and ignore the conservative hacks.

Be well.

Intelligent Design #intelligentdesign

There has been debate over education of young people in America, with some arguing that fundamental theories of science should not simple be accepted and taught because there are people who don't believe them. My state of Ohio tried to reduce education about the Theory of Evolution, and add Intelligent Design to the science curriculum. Most science teachers opposed that attempt.

I have read Michael Behe's book, Darwin's Black Box. What I learned from it is that Dr. Behe has a limited imagination and is either very lazy, an incompetent researcher, or dishonest. He claimed to show multiple systems and structures that were, in his words, irreducibly complex so that it was impossible for them to have developed by step-wise evolution. In every case, it took actual scientists about half an hour to prove him wrong with examples from nature, so the evidence was there. Behe just never found it. Or maybe never looked. Or thought no one else would notice that he was just wrong about everything.

Hardly anyone talks about that kind of intelligent design anymore, as far as I've seen. It lasted longer than it deserved in public discourse, as it was nonsense, and shown to be nonsense as soon as it was seen. There may still be people who want to argue against the Theory of Evolution, and find ways to indoctrinate children with other forms of nonsense to protect them from useful knowledge and understanding of biology, but I don't hear about it much anymore.

There is, however, real intelligent design in the world. It is brought to us by the same people who destroyed the pseudoscience version. Biologists. Genetic engineering requires intelligence, and is designed to bring about new organisms, even if the changes are modest. As far as I know, no one has designed a completely new species of living thing. Genes have been added to the genomes of existing forms of life for a range of reasons. These genes have been taken from existing forms of life. It is possible that someone has designed some kind of gene from scratch, and added it into some living organism. Mostly, though, genetic engineering, or genetically modified organisms, are made from creating new combinations of genes in a known living thing. The intelligence comes from the scientists, who design organisms to do what they feel is needed for a some purpose.

Even when scientists want a gene that isn't known to exist, they use tools of evolution to create them rather than trying to design the genes themselves. A strain of E. coli that uses an artificial amino acid, and is dependent on it, was developed by growing cultures under conditions that increased the rate of mutation, and finding mutant proteins that came closer and closer to the desired action, until one was found. That is how the necessary enzymes were developed. Then a codon for the artificial amino acid was put into several proteins already present, so they would contain the artificial amino acid. That made this strain of E coli resistant to viruses that could usually infect E coli. It also made the bacteria absolutely dependent on a source of the artificial amino acid, so it could only grow in the lab. That strain has since been used to produce various biologics, medicines based on proteins.

The tools available for intelligent design in the lab continue to improve. It is impossible to predict what scientists may be able to do with them in the future. The scientists probably still don't call their work Intelligent Design, but the description fits. Even artists have got into the game. Maybe they will start calling their biological are projects Intelligent Design as an ironic reference to the history of the term.

The Invention of Lying

I'm reading a history book about humans. It starts with the early hominids, and discusses why Homo sapiens took over the world. A main thesis in the book is that Homo sapiens outlived, and possibly destroyed, all other Homo species because sapiens invented lying.

The movie of the same name as this post posits a culture in which people all say what they mean. Everything they say is true. Everyone trusts everyone else, because no one knows how to say things that aren't true. It doesn't occur to them that anyone could say something that wasn't actually true. Watching the movie, one feels that maybe that world would have some benefits to it, but the hero of the story, or maybe anti-hero, says something untrue at a time when he thinks no one will ever find out. He gets away with it, not because of the computer glitch that inspires him, but because the bank teller believes his word over the account report on the computer.

But according to Yuval Harari, humans and other apes can only get along in small groups, usually up to about four dozen, and with gossip helping, maybe three times that many for brief periods of time. Everyone in a group needs to know everyone else well enough to know how to act together, how much trust to give them, how much to expect from them when working toward a common goal. With too many people, chaos develops, because the members of the group don't understand each other well enough.

Sapiens, however, invented myths. Norms of belief and behavior developed around those myths. Those allowed sapiens to cooperate with each other without actually knowing each other, so they could work in much larger groups, and managed to overwhelm the entire world. Granted, it did take tens of thousands of years, but it still happened.

So, if Harari is right, the culture of the movie could never exist. That's not the first movie that is about a people that couldn't exist in reality, but it does tell us something about humans, and how our desires are sometimes not rational or possible. We cannot live in a world without lies. We can live in a mythological world because so many of us believe in the same myths that we can cooperate in a functional society with billions of people, but I suppose if we stop believing in the myths, civilization with collapse, and nearly everyone will die.

And now I know that our civilization is held together by myths. So, am I now a threat to civilization? Time will tell, I guess, but I have no immediate plans to change my general behavior and find out.

Of course, that could change. Than and Cindy are moving to Seattle, and Erin and Taylor are talking about moving to Portland, so Liz is asking how we can get ourselves out there, too. I'm not sure making that big a change in our lives is safe now that we have the power of truth about human civilization. We might be tempted to use this power for our own benefit, and damn the consequences. Hmmm.