Facing Reality

I seem to know quite a few people who believe things Donald Trump says. I have tried to point out how, statistically speaking, that isn't wise. It doesn't seem to have any effect on their beliefs.

 I predicted in September 2019 that Trump would lose the election this year. He did. I had numbers in my head about how many votes Trump's opponent would get, and I foresaw something in the range of 80,000 votes, which actually happened. I don't remember if I wrote that number, but I hope I did. I was surprised, I admit, that 74,000 people voted for Trump. That seems like too many, especially after the last four years of incompetence, but, as I say, there are people who listen to Trump and believe what he says.

Trump at times seems to be on the verge of admitting he is a loser. He knows his claims of widespread fraud in the election have no basis in evidence. His lawyers won't even make claims about fraud in court because judges don't like obvious lies, and without evidence, claiming fraud is pretty serious in a court. Sadly, Trump's supporters believe him, despite all the evidence.

I told my story of making a bet in PredictIt that Biden would win the election, a bet I won, and taking that money and betting that Georgia would go to Biden, too, once the votes were all counted. That was, I think, 4 November, when the outcome of the election was clear, but contracts for Biden winning Georgia were at about 64 cents a share. Between the two bets, I had an 88% return on the money I put in. Well, minus the transfer fee for taking money out, which was over $25 out of 500. I had two people commenting about how Trump would still prevail, because Congress would object to the Electoral College vote, and send the election to the House of Representatives. They seem to actually believe that.

I'm pretty sure Trump knows that won't happen, although there are reports that he is becoming convinced that his own lies are actually true now, and that the election victory was somehow stolen from him. His followers, though, not only believe that the election was riddled with fraud and illegal votes, and that Trump won in a landslide if only legal votes were counted, but that Trump will prevail in Congress and remain as president.

I wonder what fantasy they will create after 6 January.

There are some who also believe that the Biden family is a major crime syndicate, and that Joe Biden will end up in prison for accepting bribes and kickbacks from companies his son, Hunter, has worked for. I tried directing them to the report of the Senate committee that investigated Hunter Biden's business actions and connections to Joe Biden when he was vice president, which concluded Joe Biden always acted in the interests of the country and Obama Administration policy, but that doesn't convince them.

I wonder how they will react when Donald Trump is indicted for tax fraud and other charges. I hope we find out relatively soon.