Nice Day for a Walk

I'm watching the weather. I check the weather almost every day because it's easy and it sometimes influences what I wear, and whether I take my umbrella to work, but for now I'm not going to work, and I wear what is comfortable inside the house, which I don't leave often. I haven't engaged in any business for a week. Oh, except picking up the antibiotics for Liz in the drive-through at the pharmacy on Thursday.

But today, the thermometer outside the front bedroom reads near 80 degrees, and the prediction of thunderstorms has dropped below 50%, and been pushed back a couple of hours. I could just put shoes on and go for a walk. No jacket needed. That's hard to resist.

I am seeing more and more on Facebook about people getting restless. Feeling a need to get out. Worrying more and more about getting by, and less about the risks of infection. We're still very much on the rising side of the curve. Infections in the United States seem to be doubling every two or three days, which is too steep if we have any hope of slowing the pandemic enough to keep serious infections below the capacity of our health care system. Maybe people know that, and have just given up on it. It may actually be too late.

But I still want to follow the orders. A lot of my Facebook friends are nurses, and they are telling all kinds of stories. One, a fierce defender of Trump, has admitted that her earlier dismissal of coronavirus as a minor issue, and dramatically overblown in the media, has come to recognize the danger. She spent a day on a coronavirus floor. That's all it took. Now she is advocating staying home, and following our governor's orders. She does what she can to prevent carrying the virus home, she said.

If I go out, whom will I see? Last time, there were young men playing frisbee golf, along with the dog walkers. And other walkers. And crews out working on construction. I don't have to come very close to any of those. And I could use the exercise. Last time I went for a walk, I pressed the button to get a walk signal for the back of my arm, and not my hand. I'm less likely to touch my face with the back of my arm. It seems unlikely that such precautions will matter much in the long run, but I do it anyway.

I'm still on my break from work. I have looked over some materials, because come Tuesday, I will be officially back to work, getting ready to teach my classes online. I expect it will be a challenge. I will have to create activities for the students to get them to learn the material, and demonstrate understanding, and I won't be able to sit down with them in lab, and just ask questions. If we interact in real time over the computer, I won't be able to see their faces, or watch what they do. How will I know they aren't searching for answers in their books or online? I think we will have to make the students write a lot more than they have. We may just make them write out everything, and skip exams all together, because we can't proctor exams. We'll see. Something to think about during my walk.

The Rest of the World

Liz took a turn for the worse yesterday. She has been coughing all week, a bit more, it seems, that last week, which was frustrating, as it has been six or seven weeks since she first had flu symptoms. But yesterday afternoon, she felt weak, tired, and achy. And her temperature started creeping up. In the late afternoon, she had a low grade fever. After dinner, and after taking Tylenol, her temperature was a bit higher, still.

I suggested she contact her doctor. She emailed, I think. This morning, she got a virtual appointment, and talked to her doctor about the cough, the other symptoms, like headache and wheezing, and ended up with three prescriptions, two of them for antibiotics. So she is, again, being treated for a bacterial infection.

I went to the drive through to get her medicine. It worked out fine. I generally don't like drive throughs. I don't like the car idling all that time. But I don't want to risk infection with the pandemic coronavirus while Liz is sick with something else, so I drove through, and washed my hands thoroughly as soon as I got home.

Liz started her new medicines. She had tried to avoid work today, but ended up in a virtual meeting that lasted more than an hour. She seemed tired by the time it was over. She's sleeping now, two hours later. At the end of the meeting, she texted, or maybe recorded some notes on phone. Then she read for a few minutes. Then she lay down and pulled the blanket up to her chin. She was asleep in just a couple of minutes, and I have tried not to disturb her.

I expect that other illnesses are carrying on at their usual rates while everyone worries over the coronavirus. That is part of the reason for the fear of overwhelming the health care system. We don't operate at a low occupancy rate most of the time, so we can't count on every hospital bed being available for coronavirus patients. And other patients, like Liz, are at increased risk of severe disease and complications if they are exposed to the virus. That is why I am extra careful about washing and avoiding touching anything outside the house. I want Liz to get better.

The United States now has more coronavirus cases than any other country. Granted, we do have one of the larger populations, but China has more people. China took rapid action, and seems to have contained its first outbreak. China is now worried about the virus coming back from foreign sources, like the United States. I am worried that too many people in the United States aren't taking coronavirus seriously enough, and that infections will continue to spread, and eventually, most of us will be exposed. It may not matter how carefully I wash my hands every day if no one else does. Or someone else doesn't.

First Day without Leaving

Today, I woke up earlier than I needed to. It was just a little after 7 am, but I got up anyway. I made breakfast, and Liz and I did the crossword puzzle together. Then I sat down with my computer, read the comics, and looked at Facebook and a couple of other things. I am wondering if I will stay at home all day. It will be the first time.

We have been under restrictions for a week. Last Sunday, I held Open Lab for my students, and had a pretty good turnout. I have not heard of any infections among them. By the end of Sunday, plans had changed. Finals were not held on campus, and two of my three Practicals were cancelled. We all got screened every day when we arrived at work. Everyone was advised to stay home as much as possible, but I walked to Whole Foods once to see if they had eggs, which they didn't. The next day, I think, I stopped off at Giant Eagle at 7:30 am, and found eggs, cough medicine, a box of lettuce. I also bought stamps. Thursday, I think, I went to a shipping place to mail a couple of packages Liz wanted sent, one to a friend of hers who was planning a trip to Scotland later this year. The package contained a brooch chosen for the trip. The friend lost her job while the package was en route, and I hear its arrival cheered her up.

Next day, I walked back to Whole foods to buy wine. Then I went to Giant Eagle to buy cranberry juice, and took the last bottle. Yesterday, I made a larger shopping trip, buying chicken breasts and thighs, ham, ground turkey, and ground beef, along with a bunch of other items. I didn't find any tissues. That whole paper products aisle was picked clean. And there were no black beans, so I got mild chili beans instead. Today, I am trying not to leave. I might go for a walk, but not engage with anyone or any business. I went to the corn field yesterday, and saw the expanding pond on the east side by the trees, with ducks and geese swimming in it. It rained a lot on Friday, I think, or maybe it was Thursday. There were floods in some places in Ohio, but we're pretty far from the rivers.

I found today that we're almost out of allergy medicine, which I take every day. Sharon is trying to order supplies to be delivered, and added allergy medicine to the list. We may get a delivery tomorrow. I may not have to go out shopping for a few days, anyway.

By noon today, I had about 300 steps, according to the health app on my phone. I went out and raked the sweet gum out of the lawn, which raised my total to over 2000. I do laundry on Sunday, so I will be going up and down stairs a few times a little later this afternoon. Yesterday, Liz and I walked around the short block. Liz wanted some exercise, as she has spent most of the last two weeks sitting on the couch, but didn't want to be too ambitious on her first outing. We nodded politely to a couple of people. It was rather cold, so I was glad we didn't stay out long.

I have mixed feelings about all my trips out. I go because we need things, and I don't want anyone else to have to go out. I feel useful, and somewhat in control. I minimize my contact with people and things, and I wash carefully as soon as I get back. But I feel a little bad for having so many trips out. I want to comply with the recommendations, because I understand how they are supposed to work. I hope that all these restrictions will help with the crisis, and that the rate of infection will slow enough that our hospitals will not be overwhelmed. I actually hope that we will be so successful at social distancing that we will stop the pandemic well short of the potential for destruction is seems to have, giving critics of the restrictions fodder for tall tales forever. We will all be much better off for it. I don't expect that, but it would be nice.

I expect that reported cases will continue to rise, even though widespread testing is not being pursued for lack of resources and a sense of the inevitability of near saturation exposure. I read that some places are only testing the sick and health care workers as needed because hope is lost for containment. Still, the numbers will rise. People are getting sick and dying, and that is now expected to continue for weeks or months. Unless it all happens faster, and a lot more people die.

So I will stay home as long as I can.

Free for Now to Do Nothing

I on my official break from work. I guess that means I won't be going anywhere most days. I may have to go out shopping for groceries, and I can take walks, but the rest of the time, I will be home.

It's all a bit odd, thinking about not doing anything. The truth is, I often sit at home during my breaks. I read a lot, and scroll through Facebook. I read the comics every day. Sometimes, I take naps. None of this seems burdensome, until it is imposed from outside. I feel a small but real desire to defy the orders and go places. But I have been saying that the pandemic is real, that this virus will do a lot of harm, and that the best we can do is follow the advice of the public health professionals, so I have to go along.

It hasn't been hard to do so far. It's weird thinking that everyone I meet outside home could be a source of infection. It's weird thinking I could be a source of infection. Every time I feel something change, like my throat itches a little more, or I cough or sneeze, or I get a tingle in my lips, I think it could be a sign of growing infection. Yesterday, sitting in meetings, I got a slight headache, and I was wondering if I should go back to the check-in desk and have my temperature read again. My temperature was normal, as always, this morning, and I feel the same as I have all week today. But I am hypersensitive to changes and possible risks.

I hope I don't get the coronavirus. I don't know how I would respond, but mostly I don't want to spread the virus, especially to anyone I know. The statistics of the disease are clearly increasing around here, with well over a hundred people testing positive in Ohio, and the first death reported. No one I know has tested positive, as far as I know. I don't know how long that will last. I don't know when testing will become widespread in this country. I fear that we could be restricted in our actions for months. I fear the school where I teach could have further restrictions placed on it, even though we teach nurses, which will be needed through this whole thing in increasing numbers. We may have to adapt our teaching. I don't know how much I should write about my work, but probably not at all, so what can I say? I am waiting and watching to see what happens next, and I don't think it's going to be good news for a while, or that there is much I can do.

I'm glad we have a lot of books available. They provide a distraction from our lack of control or understanding.

Acceptable Risk

I'm a college teacher. My students are training to become nurses. Many are LPN's already, and work with people who need help, so are considered essential workers, and at increased risk of exposure to various diseases.

Under current direction from our governor, people are supposed to practice social distancing, and to minimize contact. But this is Final Exam Week. The administration made the decision to have us give our written exams remotely, which means the exams weren't proctored. It's hard to say what the overall effect of that decision was. Two of my classes did quite well, on average, on the Final Exam. My other class did reasonable well. The average was near the historical average, not higher as one might expect, since students could have their books and access to the Internet during the exam, which was not written to be an open-book test.

I teach Anatomy and Physiology. We give Practical Exams in addition to written tests. In the Practical, students are asked to identify structures on models. I tried taking pictures of labeled models, and uploading them into our exam software, but I was not successful in making good, readable photographs. Out of my three classes, the Practical Exam was cancelled for two, and given to the third.

I was surprised how I felt giving the Practical. I was concerned about getting coronavirus. I cleaned the tables and the models. I cleaned the pen I placed by the sign-in sheet. After each session, I cleaned the models again. I kept thinking about the risks I was taking, and the risks to my students. I hope no one from the school ever gets coronavirus, at least not the one getting all the attention, and I have to wonder if our decision to give this Practical was a mistake. I can say it made some difference to some of the students. Everyone passed all three of my classes. That rarely happens, so maybe the remote Final Exam was a bigger change than I have noticed so far, but the classes were well-positioned for everyone to pass before the Final.

But what if I get coronavirus from one of my students? What if the virus spreads among them because one got if from work? How worried should I be?

I don't have any change in how I feel today compared to yesterday, but even if I now have the virus, I probably wouldn't have symptoms until tomorrow or the next day. But suddenly, everyone seems like a possible source of infection. I don't like this feeling.

We live in interesting times. Isn't that a Chinese curse?

What to Do on a Quiet Day

People are taking action in the United States. The governor of Ohio has closed all public schools, K-12, and said people should avoid large gatherings. The public libraries are closed. My school has said students should not come to campus more than half an hour before a Final Exam, and leave as soon as they finish.

Professional sports leagues have cancelled games. The NCAA has cancelled the national basketball tournaments. People are being told to stay away from everyone, and mostly stay home. So what do we do?

I did my taxes this morning, or at least I started. I have been reading. I may go for a walk, but I don't talk to people when I walk, so I think that will be fine. I had planned to walk to the library, because that is a nice walk, and I have two books I finished reading that I could take back. But Liz reminded me to check to see if the library is open. It is closed. And the book drop is closed. Just hold onto your books, the library website said.

I expect I have enough books to keep me occupied for a couple of weeks, at least. I have a phone, so I can call people, I guess, though I'm not a fan of phone calls. Streaming services are working, so we could watch whatever we want.

People are posting predictions about the future, like having a baby boomlet in nine months, and calling them coronials. And in 2033, Quaranteens. That won't happen at my house, no matter how enthusiastically we try, but babies do often result from enforced stays at home.

Will these actions change the outcome? We'll see. As some have pointed out, if these actions are very successful, the naysayers will claim, from now on, that all these actions were unnecessary. Some are already claiming that all the fuss over the coronavirus is just a conspiracy to hurt Donald Trump's re-election chances. Wouldn't it be great if no more people die of this disease?

Positive tests in Ohio have nearly tripled in one day, but so few people are being tested that it doesn't mean very much. Numbers will grow.

My daughter told me of an ER doctor she knows who treated a patient with symptoms suggesting coronavirus in her city. Then the doctor got symptoms. The doctor hasn't been tested because he didn't qualify. That was because the patient hadn't been tested. The patient didn't qualify for a test. So, Dayton could have a whole cluster of cases, but no one will know for some time because of a lack of access to tests. The doctor has been told to go back to work. The cluster may grow before it is identified. Or maybe we'll all get lucky, and it will just be the flu, though I expect that was ruled out with a test.

It may be several weeks before we have adequate access to tests to measure the extent of spread of the coronavirus in Ohio and other states. It may be months before we see the peak of the pandemic. If we're lucky. It may be days before our whole health care infrastructure is overwhelmed with critically ill patients. I don't think Trump is qualified to be president, and I'd really like to see him destroyed politically and held accountable for his criminal actions, but I'd still rather see the coronavirus stopped, now. Before my mother is exposed. Or my students. Or Liz or Sharon or Erin, who probably qualify as higher risk.

So I will wash my hands, and stay away from people. And read another book.

We May or May Not Stop Coronavirus

There is a lot of discussion in social media about coronavirus and the actions being taken by governments around the world. In the United States, the discussion is complicated by a president who is the most uninformed public figure perhaps in history, and who only wants to make sure the economy keeps growing so he can brag about how much good he has done. That means that taking the threat of the coronavirus seriously is now a political position, and one that brings out anger and frustration from other uninformed people who seem still unaware just how incompetent this president is. And they want people to praise him and let him do whatever he wants because.

I teach science classes at a nursing school, and have social media contacts who are nurses, including nurse educators with advanced degrees. Some of them are engaging in the game of distraction other supporters of the president have resorted to. I am unhappy about that. Nurses should know enough about epidemiology and viruses to see the threat as it is. I saw one post about dengue fever in Brazil. Yes, that is a legitimate threat, if you go to Brazil, or if it spreads. But as it is spread by mosquitoes, and there are no active mosquitoes in Ohio at the moment, it seems rather a stretch to tell people to ignore coronavirus and instead focus on avoiding Brazilian mosquitoes and dengue fever here.

Another nurse posted something about the 20 deaths in the United States from coronavirus, and compared to the deaths from suicide, diabetes mellitus, and coronary artery disease. Not really comparable, as those are not infectious diseases, but the real effect of her post was to depress me by reminding me of all the dangers to health and happiness in the world. Total downer, and unhelpful.

There is a meme circulating that contains estimates of possible morbidity and mortality if coronavirus spreads nationally. It is sobering. More people are likely to get active infection from coronavirus if efforts to contain it fail than will get active infection with the flu because there is no vaccine for this coronavirus. As coronavirus has a higher case-fatality rate, we could have half a million deaths. Possibly more, as the estimated hospitalizations is about four times the number of hospital beds in the country, so unless those infections are spread over several months, the hospitals would be overwhelmed, and more people would die due to lack of available care.

I am hopeful that our public health officials will contain the spread of this new coronavirus in this country. It will have adverse effects on the economy though, because the way to contain the virus is to decrease interactions between people who might carry infection. So planned events are being cancelled, like the Arnold Festival in Columbus, Ohio, and South By Southwest Music Festival in Texas. Millions of dollars are spent at such events. But not when they are cancelled. Are these actions worth the cost? We'll never know. Whether the steps taken to stop spread of the virus are successful or not, we will not know how thing would have been different if the events had been held.

I'm not much afraid of getting coronavirus. I am afraid of what will happen if my mother gets it. I don't want our country to suffer a major wave of disease and death. I don't care what the president thinks about the virus because I don't respect his judgment, and I don't want him to win re-election anyway, so I encourage everyone to listen to the experts and ignore the conservative hacks.

Be well.

Intelligent Design #intelligentdesign

There has been debate over education of young people in America, with some arguing that fundamental theories of science should not simple be accepted and taught because there are people who don't believe them. My state of Ohio tried to reduce education about the Theory of Evolution, and add Intelligent Design to the science curriculum. Most science teachers opposed that attempt.

I have read Michael Behe's book, Darwin's Black Box. What I learned from it is that Dr. Behe has a limited imagination and is either very lazy, an incompetent researcher, or dishonest. He claimed to show multiple systems and structures that were, in his words, irreducibly complex so that it was impossible for them to have developed by step-wise evolution. In every case, it took actual scientists about half an hour to prove him wrong with examples from nature, so the evidence was there. Behe just never found it. Or maybe never looked. Or thought no one else would notice that he was just wrong about everything.

Hardly anyone talks about that kind of intelligent design anymore, as far as I've seen. It lasted longer than it deserved in public discourse, as it was nonsense, and shown to be nonsense as soon as it was seen. There may still be people who want to argue against the Theory of Evolution, and find ways to indoctrinate children with other forms of nonsense to protect them from useful knowledge and understanding of biology, but I don't hear about it much anymore.

There is, however, real intelligent design in the world. It is brought to us by the same people who destroyed the pseudoscience version. Biologists. Genetic engineering requires intelligence, and is designed to bring about new organisms, even if the changes are modest. As far as I know, no one has designed a completely new species of living thing. Genes have been added to the genomes of existing forms of life for a range of reasons. These genes have been taken from existing forms of life. It is possible that someone has designed some kind of gene from scratch, and added it into some living organism. Mostly, though, genetic engineering, or genetically modified organisms, are made from creating new combinations of genes in a known living thing. The intelligence comes from the scientists, who design organisms to do what they feel is needed for a some purpose.

Even when scientists want a gene that isn't known to exist, they use tools of evolution to create them rather than trying to design the genes themselves. A strain of E. coli that uses an artificial amino acid, and is dependent on it, was developed by growing cultures under conditions that increased the rate of mutation, and finding mutant proteins that came closer and closer to the desired action, until one was found. That is how the necessary enzymes were developed. Then a codon for the artificial amino acid was put into several proteins already present, so they would contain the artificial amino acid. That made this strain of E coli resistant to viruses that could usually infect E coli. It also made the bacteria absolutely dependent on a source of the artificial amino acid, so it could only grow in the lab. That strain has since been used to produce various biologics, medicines based on proteins.

The tools available for intelligent design in the lab continue to improve. It is impossible to predict what scientists may be able to do with them in the future. The scientists probably still don't call their work Intelligent Design, but the description fits. Even artists have got into the game. Maybe they will start calling their biological are projects Intelligent Design as an ironic reference to the history of the term.