Sunday, March 8, 2020

We May or May Not Stop Coronavirus

There is a lot of discussion in social media about coronavirus and the actions being taken by governments around the world. In the United States, the discussion is complicated by a president who is the most uninformed public figure perhaps in history, and who only wants to make sure the economy keeps growing so he can brag about how much good he has done. That means that taking the threat of the coronavirus seriously is now a political position, and one that brings out anger and frustration from other uninformed people who seem still unaware just how incompetent this president is. And they want people to praise him and let him do whatever he wants because.

I teach science classes at a nursing school, and have social media contacts who are nurses, including nurse educators with advanced degrees. Some of them are engaging in the game of distraction other supporters of the president have resorted to. I am unhappy about that. Nurses should know enough about epidemiology and viruses to see the threat as it is. I saw one post about dengue fever in Brazil. Yes, that is a legitimate threat, if you go to Brazil, or if it spreads. But as it is spread by mosquitoes, and there are no active mosquitoes in Ohio at the moment, it seems rather a stretch to tell people to ignore coronavirus and instead focus on avoiding Brazilian mosquitoes and dengue fever here.

Another nurse posted something about the 20 deaths in the United States from coronavirus, and compared to the deaths from suicide, diabetes mellitus, and coronary artery disease. Not really comparable, as those are not infectious diseases, but the real effect of her post was to depress me by reminding me of all the dangers to health and happiness in the world. Total downer, and unhelpful.

There is a meme circulating that contains estimates of possible morbidity and mortality if coronavirus spreads nationally. It is sobering. More people are likely to get active infection from coronavirus if efforts to contain it fail than will get active infection with the flu because there is no vaccine for this coronavirus. As coronavirus has a higher case-fatality rate, we could have half a million deaths. Possibly more, as the estimated hospitalizations is about four times the number of hospital beds in the country, so unless those infections are spread over several months, the hospitals would be overwhelmed, and more people would die due to lack of available care.

I am hopeful that our public health officials will contain the spread of this new coronavirus in this country. It will have adverse effects on the economy though, because the way to contain the virus is to decrease interactions between people who might carry infection. So planned events are being cancelled, like the Arnold Festival in Columbus, Ohio, and South By Southwest Music Festival in Texas. Millions of dollars are spent at such events. But not when they are cancelled. Are these actions worth the cost? We'll never know. Whether the steps taken to stop spread of the virus are successful or not, we will not know how thing would have been different if the events had been held.

I'm not much afraid of getting coronavirus. I am afraid of what will happen if my mother gets it. I don't want our country to suffer a major wave of disease and death. I don't care what the president thinks about the virus because I don't respect his judgment, and I don't want him to win re-election anyway, so I encourage everyone to listen to the experts and ignore the conservative hacks.

Be well.

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