Without an Algorithm

Clearly, I'm not very dedicated to maintaining a journal or blog, but I do have thoughts.

I have been looking at predictions for the upcoming midterm elections. There seems to be a general expectation that Democrats will do well, overall, and stand a chance of electing a majority in the House of Representatives. The odds are longer for a change in leadership in the Senate. The predictions, updated frequently, shift one way or another, but haven't changed very much in the last few weeks.

Here is my prediction, which is not based on polling or even reading local news, but a kind of gut feeling. Democratic candidates for congressional seats in Ohio will get more total votes than Republican candidates, but Republicans will still dominate the Ohio Congressional caucus. We are victims of gerrymandering.

If the Democrats have a very good day, they might win as many as six House seats, out of sixteen. If they have a very bad day, they will win four seats.

In a recent election, the primary in May, Ohio voters passed a referendum changing the process for creating congressional districts. The new process requires some votes from the minority party in a decision to approve the districts designed by a commission. If all minority members vote against the proposed plan, the districts are still approved, but must be revisited in a couple of years, or maybe four or six. It is not quite as bad as it was before. Time will tell whether it makes a substantive difference.

For now, the general prediction on outcome of the election is easy: Republicans will get the majority of congressional seats from Ohio. The vote totals are not quite so clear. In the last three elections, Republicans have had more votes than Democrats. I expect that will not hold this time, but I have a poor record of handicapping election results.

I will vote. I will not show ID when I vote. I expect my vote will be counted, anyway, as it should be, as I am a citizen and registered voter. I don't know if my preferred candidates will win in state elections, but I am pretty sure my Representative will still be Steve Stivers, as our district is very heavily Republican, by design.

The local election, for state representative, could be more interesting. Maybe I'll look into it.