Uncertainty

 I have dabbled in electronic market for the elections this season. I made money on contracts for Biden to be elected president, and a little for Democrats to keep their majority in the House. Then I took my winnings and put them in contracts for Georgia's electors to go to Biden when the contract price was in the low 60's in cents on the dollar.

I took most of my money out of the site, and made a nice profit, even after the site took a cut and the fees for transfer. I left a little, which I put on Democrats to win in the runoff elections for Senate in Georgia. I'm not sure if both, or either, Democrat will win. I read today that the actual betting sites favor the Republicans in both races, even though the poll averages reported by FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics favor the Democrats. The poll leads are only a percent difference in the wider margin, and less than a percent in the other race. Since Republicans generally do better in runoff elections than Democrats, that could still mean an advantage for the Republicans. I think that explains the betting.

An added twist, though, is that Donald Trump has tweeted that the election in Georgia is illegal and unconstitutional. Will that suppress turnout among Republicans? Maybe. There have already been more votes, through early voting and mail-in ballots, than are usually cast in Georgia runoff elections. Based on distribution, maybe other factors, it appears turnout so far favors Democrats, which was also true in the general election. More than 60% of the total for the general election have already voted in the runoff. Republicans count on heavier turnout among election day voters, and usually get it. Trump is scheduled to appear at a rally Monday, the day before the election. Will he tell Georgians to stay home? Will anyone listen?

I find it sad that Republicans in the House and Senate are insisting on making a fuss over certifying the electoral college votes on Wednesday. They all know Biden won the election, and that the election was properly run, with no major irregularities and no evidence of widespread fraud. What little fraud has been revealed has shown that people who try to cheat tend to get caught, and that all the cheaters so far have voted for Trump. But there hasn't been enough to change the outcome anywhere. It isn't even close. So why are these elected officials going to undermine the general confidence in our election? Because of pressure from constituents at home. There are people, who appear to be either uninformed or grossly dishonest, who are calling their elected representatives and demanding that the election be overturned, or so the elected officials are suggesting. Can't these people, the elected officials, see that whatever they main gain in temporary popularity among their uninformed constituency is not worth the longer term damage to our democratic institutions, on which our civilization depends?

I keep hoping that someone will confront some of these people, and demand to see any and all evidence they have, and then go through it all step by step to show there is no substance to Trump's claims. But even giving in and allowing an investigation will decrease confidence in the system. Trump is a big loser, and he is making us all lose, bigly.