Just Watching

 I am tempted to make predictions about the year we have just begun, but I think I will not. I know some things that will happen this year. There will be an national election with updated congressional districts, and I expect I will follow the campaigns to some extent and I will vote, but I don't plan to predict the outcome, at least not for some time.

In 2020 some acquaintances suggested I "put my money where my mouth is" when I predicted that Trump would lose his re-election bid. I did. I put money in an online election market, buying contracts for Trump to lose. I made a few hundred dollars, more than doubling my money. That was an easy bet.

The 2022 election seems less predictable to me at this point. Republicans are optimistic because President Biden isn't particularly popular and the sitting president's party usually loses seats in Congress in the midterm elections, so history is on their side. Their primary worry, according to some reports, is Trump, who is still making noise and attacking everyone he thinks doesn't love him enough. And there are those investigations to consider. If enough is learned about Trump's illegal actions, and those of his supporters, support for Trump supporters may decrease.

There are other factors that could matter. Covid is still a problem, and now people are turning their anger and frustration toward President Biden for not solving all those problems since he is president so everything bad is his fault. I know that the general thinking of the American public isn't quite that simplistic and unrealistic, by sadly it is a close enough approximation to have meaning and use in making predictions. But that could change, and things could move more toward normal with regard to public health. And the economy could change. And Congress might get a little more work done. If any or all of those things happen by April, Democrats have a better chance of maintaining majorities in Congress.

The Senate map is close, according to those who handicap such things. The House is too unsettled, with many states still working on redistricting plans, and some plans apparently being challenged in the courts, like in Ohio. I think it would be nice if the courts held that the redistricting plan in Ohio is illegal, considering it makes a mockery of the referendum supporting less partisan redistricting here, but I have little faith in the process. I expect I will end up in a gerrymandered district again and my unqualified nobody of a representative will win re-election. He may start competing with Jim Jordan for Ohio's Most Famous Ass in Congress, but I hope not. For now, that is my only prediction for the 2022 election.

I expect we will hear a few stories about the Webb Space Telescope. I expect temperature trends for average global temperature will continue on their current path. I expect extreme weather events will occur and will spark some discussion of the role of global warming. I expect the Winter Olympics will take place, and that most planned sports events for leagues around the world will take place, and that some of the winners will be surprises and some less so. General trends in human activity don't often change quickly. 2020 was an anomaly.

I think I will try to focus on events closer to me than on global trends and national politics this year. I like my life, so that seems like it will be more fun.

Happy New Year!