Details

 Today is the last day of the year. We use a number system, calling it 2021. It is based on a solar year and dates back some time, with adjustments over the centuries as needed because the day/night cycle and the orbit don't really come out in even numbers. Generally the adjustments are small, though every four years a day is added because the orbit is not 365 days, but closer to 365.25. It's not exactly that, either, so other adjustments are built in, but rare enough that most people won't experience them. Smaller adjustments are made in public time as the actual time of our planetary rotation is not 24 hours, but off a little. The exact moment for some phenomena can be observed and recorded, but how many seconds are really in a day? A day is very slightly longer than 24 hours, which adds up to a second every year and a half or so, and over the longer term, the rotation has slowed by a bit over a millisecond per century. These variations are known by science and adjustments are made. People know about Leap Year, the years with an extra day. Leap seconds are added to the clock at the end of June or December as needed, but without much notice or fuss by the general public.

Most of us don't need to follow all this detail. Adjustments of a second in public time has no effect on when you sit down for lunch or join your next Zoom meeting, though if those adjustments weren't made, eventually the shifts in time would become large enough to be noticeable. Systems are in place to take care of them so business and life can go on uninterrupted and with confidence that the trains will not crash due to time differences across jurisdictions.

This is one clear illustration of the details of existence that we don't bother with most of the time. Such details are everywhere. Sometimes they are much more important, and unexpected variations can have very serious consequences. Like GM's exploding batteries. The science seemed to work. The engineering probably required some adjustment because electronics doesn't always work quantitatively according to the design specs for each piece. And most of the batteries seem to function well enough. But some overheat and explode. That is something that will probably get fixed, eventually. Maybe not. Maybe the Chevy Bolt will cease to exist and serve as a cautionary tale for the whole electric vehicle industry. We want consistency and accuracy, but we don't consider how truly complex our world is, instead using the simplified version that allows us to get on with life without asking too many detailed questions. Reality is beyond our comprehension.

Most people don't understand viruses. All the changing recommendations from public health officials during this pandemic have caused confusion and distrust in the public, including among health care professionals, who know some about health care but not enough, apparently, to follow the changes of science in real time. Living with constant uncertainty is a part of the human condition, but being reminded of that so much lately is wearing. The basic recommendations have not changed much. We know the general rules of how respiratory viruses spread and what actions help to decrease the risk of infection. But we want exact numbers for those risks. We want to know how many days or hours a person who tests positive is still capable of spreading the virus. But there is no exact number of days or hours. It will vary across the population according to too many variables to list, most of which have never been studied because they involve interaction of the complexities of human physiology at levels we don't understand, or so I expect. I'm not familiar with the data on which the decrease in isolation time recommended by the CDC is based. First exposure meant a 14 day isolation. Then 10 day. Now 5 day. Only applicable if the patient has no symptoms. Does the patient recognize all relevant symptoms?  I wouldn't bet my life on it. And I want to protect my life.

In my case, I'm not very social by nature so social distancing and staying home are not burdens. I may live under pandemic rules by choice from now on. The heavier burden is watching so many people fight against useful recommendations out of fear and ignorance, and know there is nothing I can do to make that change. Another one of those details that science has revealed: people who oppose vaccination will not change their minds based on data and truth. That is an uncomfortable details about the human condition.

You're Getting Warmer

 Sometime each month I check on the data for the previous month to follow the trends in global warming data. Okay, I check the first week of the month to see what the satellite data reported from UAH say, then later to see what everyone else says. October was warm in the satellite data, 0.37 degree anomaly, up from 0.21 in September, with the linear regression unchanged at 0.14 degrees per decade. I find the comments on that site amusing because most who participate are convinced that there is no global warming and that any day now the temperature trend will reverse itself and prove that the climate alarmists were wrong all along. They don't address the rising linear regression (It has climbed by 0.02 in the last decade or so.)

Other data sources aren't out with numbers for October yet, but I say a site in my search about year-to-date average, so I clicked to see what it was. It was from January 2021, so there was no year-to-date data, just the number for January compared to all past Januarys, but there were lines for the rest of the years. I looked in the site to try to find something to click to get the most recent data, since we are well past January for this year. I couldn't find anything and there was no search function.

I tried a new search on my browser, using Google, and searching year to date average global temperature, and only got the same January site. I clicked on the September report from NOAA, and tried year-to-date there, because the graph I looked at used their data. I got nothing useful; it had no way I could find to reach the graph.

Finally, I went back to the January graph, looked at the details in the url, and changed a number in it that ended in 01 to 09. That worked, and I saw that 2021 is currently the sixth warmest year to date through September, and trending upward, so it might cross up to fifth or fourth, unless the La Nina drops the temperatures in November and December, as some ar.)e predicting.

I don't understand why the algorithms couldn't find the graph for me on the search. Doesn't NOAA want people to see the more recent graphs? Does Google's search algorithm get so bogged down with one site it can't find something that is clearly a better match (I put in September 2021 in my year-to-date search.)? Maybe the algorithms suffer from the same weaknesses as the general population of America; they don't know much, don't care at all, and can't be bothered with any kind of change once they have settled on something. I find it frustrating that no matter how carefully I tailor my searches, I don't find what I'm after even though I know it's out there. Maybe I need some training in how to better manipulate these lame algorithms that are supposed to be superintelligent and about to take over the world.

Congress passed an infrastructure bill. Not a big enough one, but it is a step. I expect Biden's approval will go up a point or two. Maybe it will lead to more success, which would be nice.

Predicted Outcome

 Ohio had two congressional districts with special elections this week. The results were predictable, and predicted, even by me. Gerrymandering won and representative democracy lost.

In my district, a Republican candidate with no government experience and no apparent qualifications won easily against a serving Democrat from the state legislature. The seat was vacated by our previous representative so he could become president of the Ohio Chamber of Commerce. He had held office in the state legislature before running for Congress, which he lost in his first campaign, but won a rematch in 2010, when Democrats were so disillusioned by the failure of the Obama Administration to solve all the world's problems in a few weeks, they didn't bother to vote. That gave Republicans complete control of the state legislature and also Congress on a national level. So Republican gerrymandered our district, which used to be somewhat competitive to a guaranteed win for Republicans.

So it seems I will have a useless and incompetent representative, at least until after next year's election. My guess is that gerrymandering will win again and I will still be in a Republican district. That saddens me because I believe, at least somewhat, in the democratic republican form of government.

I can't say how bad a representative I have now. I doubt he will be a worse embarrassment to Ohio than Jim Jordan, but he might. I think he was an energy company lobbyist, so he will probably oppose action on global warming, along with the rest of his party, despite decades of data and actual changes causing a great deal of harm in the world, which will continue to get worse as the warming continues, even if we take action. The best we can do is limit the severity of the damage. It is too late to prevent a lot of warming and damage because we haven't already taken the action the science suggested we should.

In the other election, a democrat who was in local government ran against a radio personality who has run for office before and always lost. The Republican didn't respond to media inquiries about her position on issues. She seems sadly typical of current Republican candidates; uninformed and uninterested in making the world better.

In Virginia, the Republican candidate for governor won based on a campaign of fear mongering and lies, stirring up racial resentment. I guess he and his party have nothing else to offer. It is a sad state of affairs.

A Small Comfort

 I have noticed that when I make a purchase, I start seeing ads online for items similar to my purchase. I think it's funny that after I bought a stethoscope I started seeing ads for medical devices, along with constant emails from the company I bought from. I am unlikely to buy another stethoscope, as my first one lasted more than two decades, so the new one should be around for some time. I may, one of these days, unsubscribe from the emails, but that isn't always easy.

Yesterday, I mailed in my ballot for November's election. It seems the algorithms aren't aware of that. I take some comfort in that fact. It may be that, in fact, the algorithms are aware that I have already voted, but I keep seeing ads for various candidates anyway. I know some kind of algorithm is responsible for the political ads I'm seeing because they are for candidates for my city's council and my school district's school board. I know that the social media I use, and the browsers and search engines, and all the other techy things that make up such a big part of our lives have access to a lot of information about me. I'm sure my address is somewhere in the records in Facebook, and even though I don't publish it, the algorithms know. But they are not all-knowing. Unless they are playing a deeper game, and letting me think they don't know the current status of my ballot.

I haven't yet received notice that my ballot has arrived at the Board of Election. Once it arrives, it has to be verified. Then it will be held until election day, when it will be counted. I know about these steps, and they allow me to have confidence that my ballot will be counted and our elections are secure enough for us to accept the results as legitimate.

It seems a lot of people in America don't understand these things. Traitors and insurrectionists tried to stop the official process of acknowledgment of the outcome of the 2020 election, resorting to threats and violence to try to challenge a result they didn't like. That is scary. I hope investigations continue and everyone even remotely connected to those actions are prosecuted for every possible charge and given maximum sentences for each. I don't care if they argue that they were just caught up in the moment, and didn't intend to break the law. I am quite comfortable with sending them all to prison for as long as the law will tolerate and imposing all penalties and suffering associated with felony criminal conviction on all of them in defense of democracy and the peaceful transfer of power. Our system of government and peace in our country depend on those.

So I voted. And I will vote again next time. I will follow events and learn what I can about candidates, and I won't care much if the algorithms get better and I see even more targeted political ads. For now, I feel smarter than the algorithms, and I don't expect that to change very quickly.

Living in Democracy

 I received my ballot in the mail yesterday. The election is the first Tuesday of November, and there are races for judgeships, city council, school board, and a Special Election for Congress because my representative quit a few months ago. He would say he had an opportunity he couldn't pass up for a position he really wanted, which is something like president of the Ohio Chamber of Commerce. I think he's a coward and a weakling who didn't like the developments in his party but didn't try to change anything, and instead ran away. I say this because I am giving him the benefit of the doubt. If he wasn't disgusted with his party, both in Ohio and nationally, he is either lacking any morals or a dimwitted fool (which I really don't see in most of his career). But after he was first elected, his party conspired to make him a non-entity.

Which brings me to the election. I have chosen a candidate, but I have not seen any polls for this race. I don't know that there will be any. Everyone who cares about such things already has a firm idea of the outcome of this election because it is for a representative in a gerrymandered district. That is why my representative was a non-entity; he had no concerns about losing to a candidate of another party, only about a primary challenge from the crackpots in his own party. That was, and is, a serious concern. The Republican candidate in this race is one of those crackpots. He has no experience in public service. He has no qualifications for the job. I a committee of professionals were created to find appropriate candidates for this position, he would not be on anyone's list. But he will win the election because it will be an undemocratic election, gerrymandered to make sure Republicans have power and the will of the people be damned.

Ohio officials are in the midst of redistricting, and Republicans are again showing disdain for principles, even in the face of a referendum demanding fair redistricting. They would rather keep power than follow the Constitution or uphold the election results. The new rules say that a bipartisan committee should create proposed districts, which are then to be voted on, and only if the result is bipartisan will the new districts be used for ten years. But Republicans are perfectly happy to ignore the demands of the voters in Ohio and principles of democracy or morals, or anything else that might challenge their position of privilege, and will instead vote for clearly unfair districts that give advantage to Republican candidates in enough districts to maintain a comical advantage in light of the actual vote numbers, even though it will mean the new districts have to be redone in four years, under the new rules. After all, with the new districts the Republican force into place, they will just do the same again every four years. They think, and possibly correctly, that they can say they are doing what is best, and be able to keep this up indefinitely.

I don't know what it would take to change this. I have read that the Ohio Republican Party is the most corrupt in America. After all, the Speaker of the House was hounded out of office for his blatant corruption earlier this year. But still Ohioans will vote for them, allowing them to manipulate the districts to keep themselves in power. And then the public is shocked by the level of corruption we enjoy.

I will vote anyway. I will learn what I can about the candidates in the races, and vote according to whom I see as best fit for each position. And I will endure the pain of seeing the results of a corrupt system maintaining itself and feel helpless. I comfort myself with the knowledge that for the most part, they are neither bright enough nor competent enough to do much real harm. It's just sad that some good could be done if only we had a government run by people with principles.

Wow, what would happen if these idiots saw this? Would anyone come for me? I doubt it. They know that attacking your enemies only draws attention, and so long as they don't draw attention, they can get away with basically doing nothing at all, and still keep their positions.

One Week at at Time

 A lot has happened in my life this week, though not so much involving algorithms.

Last Saturday, I was in Portland. Liz and I flew out the previous Saturday to spend a week with Erin and Taylor and the boys, or most of a week. We were going to drive up to Seattle on Wednesday to see Nate and Cindy and hoping the new baby would be born by then so we could see him, too. We also set up a meeting with my brother, John, and his daughter, Lily.

The best laid plans. Cindy's due date was September 12. The baby hadn't come by then. Or by the 18th, when we flew out. Or by Wednesday, 22 September. We wouldn't have seen him anyway, because Arlo, the four-year-old, caught sniffles from a classmate, which he generously spread around. Sunday, Crosby had a fever, not high, but he was showing the effects, grabbing at his nose, and being low energy in the evening. Crosby still had symptoms, but seemed a bit better Monday.

We had fun, playing Mousetrap and other games. We ate out or brought food in, and we ate well.

Tuesday, Taylor was feeling under the weather. Erin had planned a trip to the Pumpkin Patch, so the rest of us went, and left Taylor wrapped in blankets in his chair in the living room. We went through a corn maze, saw a few cute little animals, and got pumpkins for Erin and each boy. I bought elderberry wine, because I've never tried it before. We went back to the apartment, and Taylor was feeling well enough to join us for dinner at our Airbnb, which is a guest house in back of a house a few blocks from the Clarke's apartment.

Wednesday, Liz woke up with a headache and congestion. She looked wiped out, so I sent her back to bed and texted John and Nate and cancelled our visit to Seattle. Liz slept for over two hours. She woke up when Erin came over with some soup for us. She had another nap in the afternoon, almost as long, but was feeling up to having dinner at the Clarkes'.

Nate told us Cindy had an induction scheduled for Saturday evening, which was two weeks past her due date, and was the day we were to fly back to Columbus. Liz decided to change her flight and stay a couple of extra days. She was hoping to pop up to Seattle Sunday to see Baby H, but Nate said Cindy didn't want any visitors for a few days after the birth. Besides, Liz was still coughing, which was one reason to delay her flight.

Both boys were back in school on Friday. Erin and Taylor took us to the Japanese Gardens, which were beautiful and peaceful, and made for a very nice afternoon. Then we got the boys from school and drove to Salty's, a seafood restaurant for dinner.

We went over to the Clarkes' for breakfast Saturday, then I left at 9:30 to get to the airport. I never learned how to set up direction in our rental car, a Nissan Maxima, but my phone gave me directions through my hearing aids, so the sound was clear, and I got where I needed to be.

Sunday we got an update on Cindy, but with very little detail before I went to bed that night. Monday around 11 EDT I texted to see what was happening. Nate texted a bit later to report the Baby H was born at 7:18 am PDT, so half an hour before I texted. The first information Nate shared was the the baby was "red and hairy". And Cindy was fine.

Liz left for the airport within an hour. We got statistics on the baby, weight, length, positive hearing test. Then sometime later, a name. Alistair Changning Hopkin, welcome to the world.

I got a toothache Monday. The pain came and went, but it was bad enough I was worried about it.

Liz made it home. She was pretty tired when she arrived, so we went to bed pretty quickly after the drive from the airport.

Tuesday we went to work. I still had issues with my tooth. Liz got a nap.

Wednesday my brother sent a text. It said there was a medical emergency overnight, and that that morning, Cal had died.

I stared at the text, trying to make a connection to Cal. Who was that? Then I remembered; my niece had a baby in July, and named him Callum. My two-month-old grandnephew had died suddenly. I never met him, but I had been enjoying the pictures my niece and her husband had shared. He was an adorable little guy, full of smiles. And now he's gone.

I still don't know how to deal with that. I don't know what to say about it. I haven't been talking about my new grandson because I feel like I should also talk about my grandnephew, and I can't. How can I be so happy about Alistair and so devastated about Callum at the same time? My daughter wrote a nice piece about trying to deal with all that.

Thursday, I took our old Camry in to see about the brakes, which suddenly had a lot of play in them. The mechanic said the brake lines were completed rotted, and the fluid was all gone. He said the car would need other things to be driveable, including tires soon. He was estimating about $1,200. This is a '97 Camry, 25 years old. So we needed a new car.

I also called my dentist because my tooth seemed to be getting worse. I got a message that the office was closed for the day. I took some Tylenol that evening, and was able to sleep. Friday morning I called the dentist's office again, and got the same message. I left a message that I had a toothache and wanted to see the dentist. I took meds again Friday night, but couldn't sleep for most of the night. Around 3 am I took ibuprofen, too. I did get to sleep some time after that.

I was awoken by my phone, which turned out to be the dentist's office. It was 7:50, and they offered any appointment at 9 or 8:30. I took 8:30. I got dressed, brushed my teeth, and walked to the dentist. I was 15 minutes early. The dentist came straight in, and we talked about my toothache. He suggested I needed a root canal. So I got one. He found a crack in the tooth that seemed to explain the pain. He said if the crack goes all the way down, I may lose the tooth later, but he recommended trying to save the tooth. I agreed. So now I am recovering from a root canal, with follow up in a week and a half.

While I was at the dentist, Liz and Sharon were looking over cars on the Carmax website. Soon after I got home, they drove over to take a look. They chose an '18 Subaru Impreza. Not long after they got back, they were told the computer systems were back online, and they could complete the purchase, so they went back. We have a new (used) car. We decided to call her Prudence. She is replacing Molly, but kind of displacing our main car, Scooter, an '07 Honda Fit we've had since '09. Sharon is donating Molly to NPR.

So, It's been a busy week, a challenging week. It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. As Erin said, we have managed to wiggle through, and will just have to keep going, on into next week.

Unworthy Representation

 I have read comments recently that bother me because they are from people who should have higher standards. Representative Boebert of Colorado said Texas has not reported any Covid deaths since it "opened up" on 2 March. They reported 58 deaths yesterday or the day before, and about 3,600 deaths since 2 March. She told this obvious falsehood in the context of accusing Democrats of ignoring facts and science. So, pretty much everything she said is attacking Democrats was false, and easily shown to be false. If I were from Colorado, I'd be embarrassed by her representing my state. In fact, she is an embarrassment to Congress.

Sadly, she's not the only one. Representative Greene of Georgia compared mandates to wear masks to the holocaust. Seriously. The holocaust was the Nazis forcibly imprisoning Jews and others they deemed undesirable into concentration camps and systematically murdering them. Mask mandates are public health measures with proven efficacy in preventing the spread of respiratory infections. Ms. Greene suggests that in her mind these are morally equivalent. This seems to suggest she has no working mind.

While these two are obvious examples of mindless comments, they are sadly not much worse than the leadership of the Republican party in Congress. One representative said the events of 6 January were like a normal day of tourist visits to the Capital. There are pictures of him helping barricade the rooms where Congress had assembled for security. His statement also ignores the violence. The list of deaths and injuries is appalling.

Representative McCarthy, who is the Minority Leader in the House of Representatives said that a commission to investigate the events of 6 January wouldn't learn anything new. That is clearly false, as there are still investigations in progress, and much of the story hasn't been told. In his case, he is clearly lying for political reasons. He is aware that many Republican, him included, opposed certification of the election, despite the insurrection, and that having public attention focused on those events and realities would be bad for his party in the midterm elections. But it is still an obvious lie.

I think we Americans deserve better leaders, but I could be wrong about that. People say that in a democratic republic, you get the government you deserve. So apparently we Americans have committed some terrible sins and deserve incompetent and dishonest representation in Congress. What can we do to change that?