Do You Hear What I Hear?

 I got hearing aids in October. My daughter has been saying for a decade that I needed them, but I just didn't do anything about it. For one thing, I can hear well enough to get by. For another, I would have to make appointments and get to new doctors and places to get them. For a third, health insurance doesn't pay for hearing aids; that would have to come out of pocket.

But during the last year or so, I had noticed I had to ask students to repeat questions or answers, sometimes more than once, and it seems much more common. In the last three quarters, I had excuses, because Spring was all online, and Summer and Fall, we were all wearing masks. But in the Summer, my daughter and her family stayed with us, and I found that others would hear the washer or dryer in the basement shut off or change cycle, and I would not.

When I had my annual physical in August, I told my doctor I thought I should get a hearing test. He gave me a referral, and I got the test. The results suggested I, "would benefit from hearing aids." So I got them.

The main thing I have noticed was that environmental sounds were a lot louder, especially in the treble range. Ordinary things, like opening a bag of spinach, or running water, were intrusively loud. It reminded me of the rattling pearls in that scene from Singin' in the Rain. It still does.

I can't say whether my hearing aids help me with social interaction and conversation. We're still wearing masks. But the hearing aids have Blue Tooth, and I don't have to hold my phone up to my ear. I can even set the phone down on a table or arm of my chair and talk, because the sound comes straight to the hearing aids.

So far, nothing seems to be trying to send me ads through my hearing aids. I guess the algorithms having caught on about that sort of access. In fact, I can only get sound from my phone to my hearing aids, not from our (old) smart TV or my laptop. Maybe, if I start updating equipment, I will be able to stream sound from other sources, like the car radio, TV, laptop, or directly from the algorithms on the Internet. Then when I say I'm hearing voices, I won't automatically be labeled psychotic. Just chatting with the rulers of the universe. If they even get smart enough to know what we think they might do someday.

It's nice to hear better, most of the time.

Facing Reality

I seem to know quite a few people who believe things Donald Trump says. I have tried to point out how, statistically speaking, that isn't wise. It doesn't seem to have any effect on their beliefs.

 I predicted in September 2019 that Trump would lose the election this year. He did. I had numbers in my head about how many votes Trump's opponent would get, and I foresaw something in the range of 80,000 votes, which actually happened. I don't remember if I wrote that number, but I hope I did. I was surprised, I admit, that 74,000 people voted for Trump. That seems like too many, especially after the last four years of incompetence, but, as I say, there are people who listen to Trump and believe what he says.

Trump at times seems to be on the verge of admitting he is a loser. He knows his claims of widespread fraud in the election have no basis in evidence. His lawyers won't even make claims about fraud in court because judges don't like obvious lies, and without evidence, claiming fraud is pretty serious in a court. Sadly, Trump's supporters believe him, despite all the evidence.

I told my story of making a bet in PredictIt that Biden would win the election, a bet I won, and taking that money and betting that Georgia would go to Biden, too, once the votes were all counted. That was, I think, 4 November, when the outcome of the election was clear, but contracts for Biden winning Georgia were at about 64 cents a share. Between the two bets, I had an 88% return on the money I put in. Well, minus the transfer fee for taking money out, which was over $25 out of 500. I had two people commenting about how Trump would still prevail, because Congress would object to the Electoral College vote, and send the election to the House of Representatives. They seem to actually believe that.

I'm pretty sure Trump knows that won't happen, although there are reports that he is becoming convinced that his own lies are actually true now, and that the election victory was somehow stolen from him. His followers, though, not only believe that the election was riddled with fraud and illegal votes, and that Trump won in a landslide if only legal votes were counted, but that Trump will prevail in Congress and remain as president.

I wonder what fantasy they will create after 6 January.

There are some who also believe that the Biden family is a major crime syndicate, and that Joe Biden will end up in prison for accepting bribes and kickbacks from companies his son, Hunter, has worked for. I tried directing them to the report of the Senate committee that investigated Hunter Biden's business actions and connections to Joe Biden when he was vice president, which concluded Joe Biden always acted in the interests of the country and Obama Administration policy, but that doesn't convince them.

I wonder how they will react when Donald Trump is indicted for tax fraud and other charges. I hope we find out relatively soon.

What in the World

 I haven't written regularly in a journal for years, though I used to. I have very rarely looked back at my old journals, which I think contributes to my wandering away from the habit. I don't read them, and I have never shared them, so maybe there's no point to recording anything. Maybe.

There's a lot going on in the world now. We are still in the midst of the Covid-19 Pandemic, about to cross the threshold of 1,000,000 dead in the world, according to many sources. The one I look at most, Worldometers, says we crossed that threshold a day or so ago.

Sadly, the United States is the top producer of infections and deaths, though the daily numbers are no longer at their peak. They are high enough be disturbing. The most powerful country in the world, with the largest economy, has the worst record in dealing with the pandemic of any advanced nation. Our president is still down-playing the seriousness of the pandemic, lying about the numbers and dismissing all the dead in what he refers to as "blue states". Ohio is still lingering around a thousand new cases and twenty deaths per day. I would like to say that our Republican governor followed the science and managed the pandemic better than many, but, while he seemed to start off well, he yielded to the lobbyists and opened the state too soon and too quickly, leaving us with a slow spread through the community, still dealing with some restrictions, and those who understand the disease following safe practices, while others defy the recommendations and prolong the suffering through what now seems like willful ignorance and complete disregard for the health and safety of the rest of the people.

We are deep into the election season now, and so many things have happened, it is not possible to discuss them all in one post. The first presidential debate is tomorrow. Donald Trump and his campaign and supporters have spent the summer spreading lies that Joe Biden is mentally unfit. There were memes circulating that Biden would refuse to debate. Now that the debate has arrived, Trump is frantically shouting that Biden has all the advantages of experience and practice, trying to reverse the low expectations he has tried all summer to create for Biden. Well, okay, he wasn't trying to create low expectation; he was trying to convince people that Biden was suffering dementia and unfit to be president, which I think a lot of people have bought into, from the memes circulating in social media and the responses in polls. Now, Biden will appear in public, as he did in the Democratic National Convention, and everyone will see that he is clearly of sound mind, and Trump will have little to say in response.

Many Trump supporters are saying they look forward to Trump "kicking Biden's ass" is the debate. Republican operatives, Trump spokespeople, and Trump himself are now trying to raise expectations for Biden, as they now fear a strong performance by Biden will undermine everything they have said for the past year about him. It should, but Trump supporters are not known for rational thought in the face of evidence.

Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg did of cancer a week ago, and Trump and the Republican in the Senate are already preparing for the confirmation process, giving the lie to their claims of principle is the blatant partisan power grab of 2016, when they refused to consider President Obama's nomination to replace Justice Scalia. Their actions have shown that Senate Republican do not operate under any principles, but only for partisan gain, which is a sad state of affairs, but has been obvious for years, including their unquestioning support of Donal Trump despite all the evidence that he has no ethics or morals. Prior to this current proceeding, in which Republicans are making up new excuses for crass partisanship, they voted to confirm Justice Kavanaugh despite the evidence he made false and misleading statements in his confirmation hearings, and voted to acquit Donald Trump after he was impeached, despite the clear and overwhelming evidence of his guilt.

Trump has said he can only lose if the election is rigged against him. His supporters seem to believe him, despite the polls, which clearly show him losing badly, both in the popular vote and the Electoral College. Trump has said he will not accept a result other than victory for himself. He seems to be desperate to stay in the presidency, probably because he fears indictment and prosecution for his many crimes once he is no longer in the seat of power. He should fear. His list of obvious crimes is long and serious.

The New York Times just released details of Trump's tax returns for around 18 years. They make Trump look like a loser. Literally. His businesses are losing millions every years, and he has hundreds of millions in debt coming due in the next four years. He may also be guilty of tax evasion. Another set of investigations to work through. Why couldn't everyone see what an incompetent and dishonest man he is?

Being Safe

My daughter told us a few days ago that she thinks her boys would like to play with our old kitchen set. It is a little stove and sink, made of wood and plastic, that my wife had as a child growing up, and our children played with. It has been sitting in a storage space under the stair among the Christmas decorations and other items for years. Earlier, our daughter had said they didn't have room for it at her house, but some rearrangement, and perhaps changes in the popularity of other toys, has made room. So she wants to come pick it up.

I would love to see her face to face, and her boys, too. I love playing with my grandsons, and watching them play. We haven't seem them live since maybe February, which could be the longest we've ever gone since the older boy was born. I really miss spending time with them. Crosby, the older one, is almost five, and seems to be maturing into a boy. He is less occupied with Arlo and his choices of activities, at least so it appears to me, and more a studious and very bright child, who does what he is interested in. I wish I could see him often, and maybe start reading longer books out loud to him. Arlo is three, and is adorable Arlo, as he has been since he arrived. I would still happily read board books with him, or others with a few more words. Alphabet books, maybe, with him naming the letters and starting to repeat the words on each page from memory. I don't know how much he can read at this point. It has been months since I sat down with him and a book.

But Crosby fell and got a nose bleed last week, and had a visit to Urgent Care to see if he broke anything. He didn't, but he was out among people. With Taylor, his father. My daughter sold her tiny house this week, and met with the buyers without anyone wearing a mask. My wife is still coughing some from her bronchitis in February. My mother-in-law is 82. She in very good health, but 82. I don't want them to get coronavirus. I don't want to get coronavirus. I don't know that it is safe for us to be in direct contact with our daughter and grandsons. And what if Taylor came along? He delivers food for a living. I don't know how much he is working, or what precautions he takes. None of them seem to have any symptoms of any illness, which is a big change from, well, most of the last year. Crosby and Arlo seemed to be always developing a cold, or just getting over one. Runny noses were pretty much expected. Stomach bugs were also known to go through the family. That hasn't happened in the last couple of months, giving more evidence to support germ theory of disease if it were needed. It's great that they have all been healthy since March, but a lot of people who get coronavirus don't have symptoms, so how do we know they haven't got it?

After the sales meeting, my daughter said she would probably have to postpone her visit to get the little kitchen for a couple of weeks. The actual incubation period of coronavirus isn't clear, which complicates things. I hope she doesn't get sick. I hope no one else gets sick.

I really want to spend time with my grandkids. And I don't want to get sick. And I really don't want Liz or Sharon to get sick. So I don't know what to do.

I will get the little kitchen out of storage and help clean it up, and then someone will decide what risks we should take, and I will go along, probably, and none of us will get the virus, probably. Unless one of us does, somehow.

A Flat Curve

Ohio went well past the estimated death total of 500 from my post a month ago. It now stands at over 1600. We are seeing around 500 new cases a day in the state. Our hospitals and other health care infrastructure don't seem to be overwhelmed, and life goes on.

I find I rather like working here at home, and staying away from society in general. I like to read. I like to have a very flexible schedule. I like going for walks alone. I like staying out of the car for days at a time. I could adjust to this for the long term.

A lot of people in Ohio seem to feel differently about that. Some are clamoring for business to reopen. There have been protesters, some in front of Dr. Amy Acton's home carrying rifles.

It is true that the economy has been hurt by everyone staying home. We won't know the full extent of the effects on the economy for some time after businesses are all allowed to open, which is planned to happen slowly. The American system of unemployment, and government in general, has been shown to be dysfunctional and slow. Where other governments have taken on paying a share of lost income across much of their workforces, America has battles going on over relief programs for small business and unemployment benefits, because the current systems are incompatible with each other. It's a real mess, and will hurt, possibly destroy, a lot of small businesses.

But based on guidelines from the CDC and others, we're not ready to lift the lockdown. We still have 500 new cases reported each day. The rate of new cases went up, slowed a bit, went up really high for a week or so, came back down a little, and then became flat. Same numbers every day for a couple of weeks. Not trend up or down, really, just flat. So the virus is still spreading in the community, and opening up will probably cause big flareups in new cases, along with the associated deaths. I don't understand why Dr. Acton is on board with the current plans. It seems too early. But maybe the government has concluded the people of Ohio just aren't smart enough to follow the directions well enough for long enough to actually clear the infections from the community, so we may as well just accept our fate, and watch people continue to get sick and die.

I read an article that says most of the push to open up is from Trump fans. People who don't seem to notice how rarely he gets a fact right, or how little he has done, or even tried to do as president. Now they are lying about how bad the pandemic has been, saying the numbers are overstated, and it's really not that bad at all. There really aren't that many of them, but enough to make noise, and give excuses to some officials who are afraid of the political consequences of the economic problems.

So, once again, I'm just going to wash my hands.

What Happens If We Win

Although there have been over half a million cases of Covid-19 in the United States, we are not seeing the huge numbers that were projected earlier. Current projections make tomorrow the peak in deaths in Ohio. A few days ago, when that projection was published, the number for tomorrow was 29 deaths. The death total, but July or something like that, was around 500 total. We currently stand at 242.

There are already people claiming that the early and low peaks in cases and deaths are evidence that the whole pandemic is a hoax, and the media has overblown the risks from the beginning to increase sales. There is no easy way to prove them wrong, unless there are places where safety measures are not taken, and the virus continues to spread.

There is now a lot of discussion about when we should all go back to work. I'm not going back any time soon. I have been informed of my schedule until the end of June, st least, and I will not try to make any more changes. I will do the best I can under the conditions I have been given. I think it will work out well enough.

I worry about the general population, though. If they are convinced that the risks were overstated, they will be less willing to go along with science and experts in the future. It's already bad enough, with so many people claiming there is no global warming, and that we don't need regulations to protect the environment. The attitude seems to spill over into everything. Since the experts and scientists are all educated, then maybe education is useless, too. Why spend money on something that only serves to save us from a disaster we can't recognize or acknowledge?

Still, I'd rather be right and healthy than dead. I hope the governors keep making the right calls. I have no confidence in our so-called president, who is trying to find excuses to open up the workplaces as soon as possible, and to divert all the disaster relief money to his friends and favored states, along with corporations, especially big, powerful ones. But the cost of taking him down by pandemic is not worth it, and I really hope we avoid the true destructive potential of this plague.

Maybe I'll just go wash my hands again.

Nice Day for a Walk

I'm watching the weather. I check the weather almost every day because it's easy and it sometimes influences what I wear, and whether I take my umbrella to work, but for now I'm not going to work, and I wear what is comfortable inside the house, which I don't leave often. I haven't engaged in any business for a week. Oh, except picking up the antibiotics for Liz in the drive-through at the pharmacy on Thursday.

But today, the thermometer outside the front bedroom reads near 80 degrees, and the prediction of thunderstorms has dropped below 50%, and been pushed back a couple of hours. I could just put shoes on and go for a walk. No jacket needed. That's hard to resist.

I am seeing more and more on Facebook about people getting restless. Feeling a need to get out. Worrying more and more about getting by, and less about the risks of infection. We're still very much on the rising side of the curve. Infections in the United States seem to be doubling every two or three days, which is too steep if we have any hope of slowing the pandemic enough to keep serious infections below the capacity of our health care system. Maybe people know that, and have just given up on it. It may actually be too late.

But I still want to follow the orders. A lot of my Facebook friends are nurses, and they are telling all kinds of stories. One, a fierce defender of Trump, has admitted that her earlier dismissal of coronavirus as a minor issue, and dramatically overblown in the media, has come to recognize the danger. She spent a day on a coronavirus floor. That's all it took. Now she is advocating staying home, and following our governor's orders. She does what she can to prevent carrying the virus home, she said.

If I go out, whom will I see? Last time, there were young men playing frisbee golf, along with the dog walkers. And other walkers. And crews out working on construction. I don't have to come very close to any of those. And I could use the exercise. Last time I went for a walk, I pressed the button to get a walk signal for the back of my arm, and not my hand. I'm less likely to touch my face with the back of my arm. It seems unlikely that such precautions will matter much in the long run, but I do it anyway.

I'm still on my break from work. I have looked over some materials, because come Tuesday, I will be officially back to work, getting ready to teach my classes online. I expect it will be a challenge. I will have to create activities for the students to get them to learn the material, and demonstrate understanding, and I won't be able to sit down with them in lab, and just ask questions. If we interact in real time over the computer, I won't be able to see their faces, or watch what they do. How will I know they aren't searching for answers in their books or online? I think we will have to make the students write a lot more than they have. We may just make them write out everything, and skip exams all together, because we can't proctor exams. We'll see. Something to think about during my walk.